The final UFC event of 2024 is upon us!
This Saturday at Amalie Arena, UFC Tampa goes down, headlined by a welterweight showdown between former interim champion Colby Covington and the surging Joaquin Buckley. It’s a big event as fighters make the walk for the final time in 2024, so let’s jump right into the bets.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Billy Quarantillo (-162)
The co-main event sees Quarantillo take on featherweight legend Cub Swanson, and Quarantillo is coming off a loss, Swanson simply doesn’t have it any more. Swanson is 41 years old, which is damn-near prehistoric in terms of the 145-pound division. Credit to “Killer Cub” for continue to compete but “Billy Q” is just in a better position to outwork him in this one. Add in that Quarantillo is fighting in front of his home crowd and this is a straightforward bet.
Adrian Yanez (+176)
Yanez takes on Daniel Marcos in a main card matchup, and while Marcos remains undefeated, he shouldn’t be the favorite in this one. Roughly 18 months ago Yanez was the next big thing at bantamweight, until back-to-back losses against Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez ended his hype. But losing to top-15 opposition isn’t that bit of a black mark and Yanez is still the far more talented fighter. In a straight-up striking match, which this will be, I think Yanez has the superior boxing and will get his hand raised.
Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO (+165)
Simply put, I’m fading Colby Covington here.
Covington turns 37 in February and his last two fights, he’s looked horrible. “Chaos” still has great cardio and the mentality to keep coming for 25 minutes, but he appears to be in clear decline. The ghost of Jorge Masvidal had moments against him, and while I don’t quite know what Buckley’s ceiling is at 170 pounds, he packs enough power and physicality to put it on a near-washed Covington. If this were only three rounds, I might give Covington more of a chance to survive, but 25 minutes against a guy who hits like Buckley seems like it’s going to end one way.
Joel Alvarez by KO/TKO or Submission (-160)
I LOVE me some Joel Alvarez. “El Fenomeno” is proof of just how hard it can be to gain traction in the lightweight division. The man is 6-2 in the UFC, all his wins are by finish, and he only lost his debut (against Damir Ismagulov!) and to Arman Tsarukyan. In any other weight class, Alvarez would be ranked, but at lightweight, he’s still working his way to the numbers.
Alvarez is an all-offense finishing machine and while Drakkar Klose is a very good fighter (honestly, has been in the same top-25-but-not-top-15 zone for awhile now) he’s getting a little older and susceptible to the potent striking of Alvarez.
It’s the final event of the year so we might as well put in a parlay. No gimmicks this week, just three fighters I like and who I think will win.
Manel Kape (-355)
Kape takes on Bruno Silva in the featured main card bout and while Silva is surging (four wins in a row, four bonuses) Kape is a good enough wrestler to keep things standing, and he has a marked advantage on the feet. Plus, Kape is fighting to sneak his way into a title shot. “Starboy” will bring his best.
Vitor Petrino (-325)
Petrino takes on Dustin Jacoby in a main card light heavyweight contest and I like his odds to rebound from his first career defeat. Petrino probably would have walloped Anthony Smith but he got caught in a guillotine, and that’s not really in Jacoby’s bag. Petrino should score plenty of takedowns against the former Glory kickboxer and finish this on the floor.
Navajo Stirling (-750)
Laying odds like these on somebody making their UFC debut isn’t usually a smart thing, but In Stirling’s case I’ll make an exception. Stirling hails from City Kickboxing and he’s the rarest thing in MMA: a legitimate light heavyweight prospect. Man is already super polished and reminds me a bit of a 205-pound Rory MacDonald. He should roll thought Tuco Tokkos.
Parlay these two bets together for -112 odds.
We ended up a small loser last week, but only because the judges stole Alexander Volkov’s rightful win from us. Alas. Final fight card of the year, let’s 2024 end on a positive note.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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