It’s not crazy to think the greatest coach in NFL history could potentially breathe life into a sleepy college program and take it to a level of winning it’s never seen before. In that sense, the North Carolina and Bill Belichick pairing makes complete sense. Just don’t expect that transformation to happen overnight.
Sportsbooks set a win total projection for UNC in its first season under Belichick, and the lines predict more of the same of what the Tar Heels have come to expect.
At FanDuel, the over/under is 7.5 with odds favoring the under. At DraftKings, it’s 6.5 with odds favoring the over. It seems clear these books expect about seven wins in Belichick’s first year.
North Carolina’s win total line in the first season under Bill Belichick:
FanDuel: Over 7.5 (+114), Under 7.5 (-146)
Draftkings: Over 6.5 (-170), Under 6.5 (+130)
It’s clear the expectation is 7 wins
— Prince Grimes (@PrinceJGrimes) December 12, 2024
Seven wins would at least mark a one-game improvement over Mack Brown’s final year in 2024, but it’s exactly the amount of wins Brown averaged in his six years since returning to Chapel Hill. Hardly enough to compete for an ACC title and make the College Football Playoff — which is what Belichick will ultimately be expected to do.
At these odds, I’m inclined to take the over and bank on Belichick overachieving in year one. But even if he does land at just seven wins in his debut season, it’ll be enough to maintain confidence in the direction of the program. In year two, though, he’ll be expected to take a significant leap.
