Alexandre Pantoja might not be the UFC’s No. 1 choice for a main event, but that’s the spot he finds himself in again.
For the second time in 2024, the reigning flyweight champion has been called upon to close out a pay-per-view, and again, it’s against an unlikely challenger. This Saturday’s UFC 310 headliner sees Pantoja take on dangerous newcomer Kai Asakura, a star from Japan’s RIZIN promotion.
Pantoja beat Steve Erceg in the main event of UFC 301 this past May, a bout that was seemingly put together just so the promotion could have a Brazilian atop the Rio de Janeiro card. Regardless of the circumstances, Pantoja delivered as he has time and time again, and he can put himself in position for an even bigger 2025 if he gets past Asakura.
But what would the next challenge be for Pantoja, the No. 4 fighter in the MMA Fighting Pound-for-Pound Rankings? Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew got together to figure out what 2025 might hold for Pantoja, and which other fighters on the UFC 310 lineup can set themselves up for success in the new year.
Lee: Pantoja has a tough test ahead and there are still several pieces in motion at 125, but when the dust settles, it’s Asu Almabayev who will be standing across from him next.
Almabayev is one win away from a sure-fire title shot, something I expect him to take care of in the first quarter of 2025. If Pantoja can afford to wait, he should, because there’s a fresh batch of challengers waiting for him, with Almabayev at the forefront. With respect to the likes of Tatsuro Taira, Bruno “Bulldog” Silva, and (shockingly) Charles Johnson, I see Almabayev as the cream of the contender crop.
It doesn’t get any easier for Pantoja and there are no big names in the division to instantly vault him up the P4P chart, but if he keeps stringing together title defenses against a lively group of flyweight challengers, don’t be surprised if he makes the current Big 3 of Islam Makhachev, Alex Pereira, and Ilia Topuria, a Big 4.
Heck: The winner of the must-be-booked Brandon vs. Brandon trilogy fight for the title shot, and to keep the name forever.
I kid on the latter gimmick, but Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval 3 is the fight to make for the division, in my opinion, and whoever gets their hand raised should get next against Pantoja should he defeat the very fun and dangerous Asakura.
Sure, we love fresh matchups, but Pantoja-Moreno 3 was one of the best fights of 2023, and probably the best flyweight title fight in UFC history. I’d love to see it again. And if it’s Royval getting another crack at it, you’ll hear absolutely no complaints from me.
Meshew: Let’s get spicy! If Pants beats Asakura, his next opponent will be ... Muhammad Mokaev!
“Jed, no! That’s impossible! Mokaev isn’t even in the UFC anymore! The promotion let him walk after a boring performance and being a nuisance outside of the cage!”
If there’s one thing we’ve learned in the fight game it’s that Dana White and company do and say many things, and none of them are chiseled in stone. Like it or not, Mokaev is one of the very best fighters in the world at flyweight, and he’s still only 24 years old. The UFC isn’t in the business of passing on supremely talented young fighters, especially when they are open about doing anything to fight in the UFC (Mokaev offered to fight for free, if you’ll remember).
Mokaev has a fight at BRAVE CF later this month and I think after he wins, the UFC is going to come calling once again. They’ll treat this entire thing like a timeout, instilling an important lesson onto Mokaev about trying to fight someone in real life but then not at all trying to fight them when you’re in the cage, and “The Punisher” (a truly hilarious name if you’ve ever seen him fight) will be right back in the mix.
Heck: Considering I have Shavkat as my No. 1 welterweight currently, Garry would have to move to that spot, or at worst No. 2, but it’ll depend on the performance, honestly.
I’ve had Shavkat in the top spot for quite some time, and although I think Belal Muhammad might be the toughest fight in the division for him, I would pick Rakhmonov comfortably if that fight gets rebooked. Looking at a possible Muhammad vs. Garry fight, at this moment — unless Garry absolutely drums up Rakhmonov in unbelievable fashion — I’d probably lean with the champ to get it done based on the skill sets of each fighter.
While I think Garry is incredibly talented, and will likely wear the UFC title some day, I don’t love his chances on Saturday.
Meshew: Somewhere between No. 1 and No. 3, depending on what it looks like.
I currently have Shavkat as my No. 1 welterweight because he’s 18-0 with all finishes, and he’s beaten a lot of great fighters. Garry is also undefeated but some of his wins have been a little less definitive, and so if he ekes out a close one over Shavkat, the body of work won’t be quite as good as Belal Muhammad or Leon Edwards. But if he wins emphatically? Maybe that’s enough to juice him up to the No. 1 spot.
But even if Garry loses, his ceiling is still quite high. I know people are out on him because he can be off-putting personally, but the young man has a ton of talent, and I believe he’ll fight for a title at some point.
Lee: I’ve been ready to pull the trigger on bumping Garry up the rankings for a while, though strangely I have him ranked lowest among the MMA Fighting voting panel. He is as high as No. 5 on our ballots, while I have him all the way down at No. 10.
That’s probably too conservative of an evaluation of what the undefeated Irishman has done as he’s fared well against ranked competition even though he didn’t blow the doors off against Michael Page, Geoff Neal, nor Neil Magny. But he’s ably stepped up to the next level of competition, keeping his zero intact and navigating his career about as well as you can under the UFC umbrella. Now, he’s booked a matchup with the heavily favored Rakhmonov and, to be frank, until now I hadn’t even considered where to place Garry should he score the upset.
I think that feat makes him No. 3, behind only the champ Muhammad and former champ Edwards. Beating the division’s boogeyman might merit consideration for the top spot, but for me, just seeing the oft-mocked Garry reach that loft spot would be shocking enough.
Lee: Let’s go with a fighter that was clearly supposed to be on the main card.
Yes, Vicente Luque was the B-side to the regrettable Nick Diaz matchup (please, do not re-book this again), but just because Diaz is no longer part of the equation doesn’t mean Luque should just lose his spot. Luque has been one of the UFC’s best soldiers for a decade, taking on the toughest competition and delivering highlight after highlight without ever rocking the boat. That has to be worth something.
It’s not like his replacement opponent is a nobody. Themba Gorimbo’s “I’m buddies with The Rock” is one of the best gimmicks going in the UFC, and he’s made a name for himself with little help from the promotion. They should be pushing him more, not relegating him to the prelims. Even if he loses, Gorimbo is the kind of athlete a lot of fans can get behind.
The Gracie name clearly carries a lot of weight, hence Kron’s placement, but grinders like Luque and Gorimbo are getting the shaft here.
Heck: Pick a fight out of a hat and you’ll be able to make a case. Obviously, there’s a bit of sarcasm, but most of these prelim fights would have a compelling case to get the pay-per-view treatment, and I feel quite comfortable saying that.
First of all, this might be the most random matchup the UFC has made in the past decade. It literally makes zero sense. Mitchell has lost two of three—obviously, losing to one of the three best fighters on the planet is nothing to shake a stick at—was on the receiving end of one of the scariest knockouts I’ver ever seen, and squeaked by Dan Ige in a fight I scored for Ige watching live. He’s a ranked fighter with a bit of a name, and would be a perfect opponent for the Jean Silvas, Chepe Mariscals, and Youssef Zalals of the world, guys who are getting good wins and showing top-15 potential. Kron Gracie looked absolutely horrible in his last fight against a guy who was maybe in the top-35 in the division. That’s just the truth of the matter.
Not only is it nonsensical matchmaking, but giving Gracie a main card fight at the APEX seems to be a bridge too far right now. To reward him with this matchup, and card placement after what he showed in the Charles Jourdain fight is wild. Maybe he’s turned the corner, and maybe this ends up being a show-stealer, and if it is, I’ll happily follow through with proverbial hand up accountability. Wouldn’t be the first time, certainly won’t be the last.
Having said that, the fact that this fight gets higher billing than one in the same division with legit title implications is ridiculous. Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling deserves the spot, plain and simple. The Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi fight is going to be a car crash, and we know why that’s on the main card, so even if you want to play the, “Well, Dana White called Evloev boring, and Sterling is boring, too” card (I’ve seen this said many times on social media), it shouldn’t matter. There’s just no denying Evloev-Sterling is a higher-level fight, and if we’re going to watch a 145-pound matchup that could get a little weird on pay-per-view, I’d prefer it to have high stakes, compared to very few.
Meshew: So Mr. Heck makes the clear and obvious case that a title eliminator bout deserves to be on the main card, which is hard to argue. But argue I shall because, spoiler alert, the UFC got it right!
Could you put Evloev vs. Sterling, or Anthony Smith vs. Dominick Reyes, or even Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders on the main card? Certainly. But where’s the fun in that? What are those fights really for? Win bonuses and personal pride, the same as every other fight. Nay, we reject such common ideas and instead we aspire to something more.
Mitchell vs. Gracie is quite possibly the most important fight of the modern era. We venerate the great men of history like Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar and Marcus Aurelius because they were warrior poets, philosopher kings. And the battle between Mitchell and Gracie is perhaps the first time in history two such men will clash inside the octagon.
Only Mitchell and Gracie have the wisdom and humility to cast off centuries of “scientific consensus” and “basic rational thought” to recognize the Earth for what it is: a flat disc riding on the back of a turtle in outer space. While some might mock Mitchell and Gracie as credulous buffoons, too gullible to be trusted with sharp objects, those people are the true fools and part of the larger conspiracy by Big Globe to keep their sales numbers up.
Fortunately, the UFC sees how absolutely critical it is to give these two visionaries the biggest platform possible and a live microphone so they can share their message with the world (notice how I did not say “around” the world?). And you would deny the people this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity so Evloev can say something banal about Ilia Topuria ducking him?
Shame on you, sheeple.
