This is getting really depressing. Just sad. Cody Bellinger opted back into his contract with the Cubs for the 2025 season and ever since the Cubs have reportedly been trying to trade him away. The latest rumor from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale paints another sad picture from the GM Meetings a few weeks ago.
Bellinger is guaranteed a salary of $27.5 million in 2025 and then has the option to return for year three of his deal with the Cubs or opt out for an additional $5 million and become a free agent. According to Nightengale, the Cubs are frustrating not only their own fans, but agents around the league as the big-market team doesn’t want to play ball with any of the top players in free agency.
Via USA Today.
The Cubs, whose 2016-era championship window closed abruptly, are a cash cow with one of the largest markets in baseball. Yet, instead of negotiating with any of the marquee free agents, they instead are focusing on the mid-market players. They’re probably out on Soto, Burnes, Fried and Snell.
How does Bellinger come into the equation? Well, because of his big salary, the Cubs will seemingly only go after top free agents this offseason if they can find a trade partner for the former MVP.
So, this is depressing on two levels. First, the Cubs are acting as if they’re completely handcuffed by Bellinger’s contract and don’t appear to be willing to raise payroll this offseason. Cool. No playoff wins since 2017. Cool.
Second, if the Cubs are going to pursue any difference-makers, then Bellinger getting off the books is vital. However, the depressing part is that no one in the league seems to want Bellinger, despite the Cubs basically giving him up for nothing.
The worst-kept secret at the GM meetings was the Cubs offering Bellinger to anyone and everyone. So far, no team has expressed strong interest.
If the Cubs are able to move Bellinger, they likely would have to eat money in the deal or assume another similar contract.
Now, while the recent reporting is mostly focused on Bellinger, the bigger point here is that the Cubs want to lower payroll and make sure they’re under luxury tax in 2025.
Here’s what MLB reporter Joel Sherman wrote in the New York Post two weeks ago.
Via the New York Post.
There was a feeling among executives with whom I spoke at the GM meetings that the Cubs, who nudged above the lowest luxury-tax threshold of $237 million last season, would like to fall below the low bar of $241 million in 2025. And the ability to have maneuverability and still do that was greatly impacted by Bellinger not opting out of his contract for $27.5 million in 2025, which will count for $26.7 million toward the luxury tax.
Happy Monday, Cubs fans.
(Previous Update)
There are actually two separate reports coming from The Athletic overnight that point to desperation from the Cubs and their desire to trade Cody Bellinger this offseason. Ah lovely, more depressing Cubs rumors.
First, national baseball insider Ken Rosenthal relayed the thoughts of executives around the league, who believe the Cubs aren’t just taking calls, they want to trade Bellinger. However, as Rosenthal makes a point to bring up, is it even likely that the Cubs can find any suitors for Bellinger, who will earn a base salary of $27.5 million in 2025, plus has an additional $5 million buyout waiting for him if he wants it for 2026.
Via The Athletic.
While rival executives say the Chicago Cubs want to trade first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger, they also note the difficulty the team likely will face pulling off such a move.
Bellinger, 29, secured a remaining guarantee of $32.5 million — $27.5 million in salary, $5 million in potential buyout — by choosing to remain with the Cubs rather than opt out. Execs often say there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal, but Bellinger wouldn’t necessarily be a one-year commitment; he can sacrifice the buyout and opt in for another $27.5 million in 2026.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve already written how it could be beneficial if Bellinger had opted out following the 2024 season, but he didn’t and right now it doesn’t really make a ton of sense. For starters, while Bellinger’s numbers declined this past season, he still turned in a fine year, 109 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR, gave the Cubs flexibility on their roster by filling in at first base and right field, which also allowed Seiya Suzuki to excel in the DH role.
Plus, if you look ahead to the 2025 season, while Bellinger may no longer be a $30 million player, he’s great insurance to have on your squad in case something goes wrong with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field or Michael Busch at first. Sure, those two rookies had promising campaigns in 2024, but it’s never a bad thing to have an established veteran with a good track record like Bellinger on your squad to give you quality depth in case of emergency.
And also, Bellinger could be good again, possibly repeating his 2023 season, which would be fantastic.
I know the big argument here is that you could open up a spot on the roster for a prospect, maybe Kevin Alcantara or Owen Caissie, but there’s just no way the Cubs can enter 2025 expecting either of those players to become immediate difference-makers in the lineup. And honestly as much as we all seem to love Matt Shaw’s potential, his success isn’t a guarantee either.
The other big problem with this Bellinger trade rumor is that if he is moved, the Cubs aren’t actually going to get much in return. At least, that’s the perception right now. Below, Rosenthal’s final thought on Bellinger’s market.
But the $32.5 million Bellinger is guaranteed would mitigate the return in some fashion. The Cubs might need to take back an inflated contract, or accept marginal prospects in a deal.
Meanwhile, Cubs beat reporter Sahadev Sharma also wrote about Bellinger as a trade candidate this winter and again the former MVP’s current value just isn’t the same anymore around the league. But maybe there is one glimmer of hope when discussing a potential Bellinger trade which is the market can’t really be determined right now because the interested teams for him are waiting to see where Juan Soto goes.
So who knows, maybe other teams get desperate later on in the offseason and Bellinger’s value does increase.
With a price tag of $32.5 million, what the Cubs can get for Bellinger remains unclear. There has been interest in Bellinger on the trade market since the summer of 2023. The value of a potential return has certainly dipped since that point when he was performing at an All-Star level.
But the reality is the teams that are likely interested in Bellinger are the ones who are in on Juan Soto. So gauging his market currently is difficult. There are other outfield options on the free-agent market, like Anthony Santander and Tyler O’Neill. But any team that values defense and is looking for a short-term solution in the outfield and upside on offense may be calling the Cubs once Soto signs.
So, on the surface this still doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. We’re talking present day. Bellinger’s value doesn’t seem high and if he’s traded are the Cubs are actually going to save much money to use on another impactful hitter?
Sharma ended his article in The Athletic emphasizing how pitching remains the Cubs’ top priority this offseason, which got me thinking about a potential trade idea with Bellinger. Oh don’t worry, you’ll hate it and I don’t love it either, but when doing this exercise I took Rosenthal’s words into consideration about the Cubs needing to take on an inflated contract and came up with this.
Cubs trade Cody Bellinger to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jordan Montgomery.
The Diamondbacks are also desperate to shed Montgomery from their 2025 payroll following his brutal 2024 season. The left-handed starting pitcher is owed $22.5 million in 2025 and will be a free agent after that season. Arizona would get Bellinger to take over first base with Christian Walker currently testing the free-agent market and the Cubs net about $10 million in savings.
On the other hand, you’re the fucking Chicago Cubs, go out and sign Max Fried.
But again, even in that scenario the Cubs now need to replace Bellinger’s bat when the team already needs to add more reliability in their lineup with Bellinger still on the team.
There’s really only one route where a Bellinger trade makes sense and that’s pairing him up with one of the team’s top prospects and trading them for a star like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who the Cubs would then have to agree to a big contract extension to make it worth it.
I don’t know. Trading Bellinger now does not seem like an ideal outcome because at this point how can you count on the Cubs making the necessary moves afterward to make the team better in 2025. Sure, there’s a path, but it’s not very clear at the moment and Jed Hoyer’s the one driving.
