Each week this college football season, BetFTW will take a look at the 2024 Heisman Trophy race and break down the contenders. Check back every week as the best college football players in the country jockey for position with both oddsmakers and bettors. All odds via BetMGM.
Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7, Week 8, Week 9, Week 10, Week 11, Week 12
This is typically the time of year it’s pretty fun to look at some blind resumes and guess who the Heisman favorite should be.
Unsurprisingly, it turns out this is only a fun exercise when the top contenders are all quarterbacks. That’s not the case this year. The two almost guaranteed finalists are down to Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty and Colorado wideout/defensive back Travis Hunter.
Instead were left to wonder argue whether or not a Group of Five tailback’s weekly dominance is more impressive than a two-way star playing nearly every single snap. And this is, by far, a much more interesting argument.
Jeanty’s first half of the season saw him but up Barry Sanders-esqe numbers. Hunter, meanwhile, has been a one-man wrecking ball on offense and defense against nearly all Power 4 opponents.
Let’s dig into the odds now that we’re down to four contenders left. (Sorry, Dillon Gabriel. You just missed the cut.)
Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke gazes into the crowd after the Hoosiers beat Michigan on Nov. 9, 2024, in Bloomington, Indiana.
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds)
Pay no attention to Milroe here as there are simply too many blemishes on his resume to take seriously. The more interesting story is Rourke. What happens to his campaign if Indiana beats Ohio State in Columbus this weekend? Will he be a legitimate dark horse threat to get to New York? Can he actually win the Heisman if the Hooisers win out?
I genuinely don’t know at this point, but it sure would be fun to have the conversation. If we must have a second quarterback in the Heisman race, you could pick a lot less entertaining ones than the Indiana star.
Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds)
Even after a stunning loss to Georgia Tech, Ward’s odds have dipped a ton. He’s still a virtual lock to wind up in New York for the Heisman ceremony and remains arguably the best quarterback in the country by the eye test and his statistics.
There also remains a path for him to win over voters down the stretch. Miami will face Wake Forest and Syracuse in the final two regular season ACC games. A couple of strong performances — along with an ACC title — might just be enough to convince those not sold on Jeanty or Hunter.
(Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)
Last Saturday we thought the Heisman race was completely finished after Travis Hunter’s remarkable performance. Even Deion Sanders said he was done stumping for the Buffs’ star if voters couldn’t see how dominant he is.
Then Ashton Jeanty muscled Boise State past a pesky San Jose State team with 159 yards rushing and three touchdowns.
That’s how this is going to keep playing out. Hunter does something ridiculous, Jeanty plays the Uno reverse card and back-and-forth we go.
The tailback has rushed for at least 120 yards in every game this season, though they’ve been much harder to come by lately. After averaging more than 10 yards per carry in his first five games of the season, Jeanty hasn’t averaged more than seven yards per carry in any game since. That’s the nature of being a stud tailback. Defenses are going to stack the box against you. Don’t let it take away from the fact Jeanty is still finding room to run regardless.
Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds)
A lot has been made over the fact that Hunter’s odds are so much shorter than Jeanty’s (hi, Redditors!) and, to be honest, I think there’s a pretty fair argument there.
However it doesn’t taken into account just how much leverage the sportsbooks have on Hunter. At this point, the books are trying to stop people from hammering the Colorado star and mitigate the risk on him winning. Are the odds a true reflection of how close the race is? Not at all. But they are a reflection of how worried oddsmakers are that Hunter already has this thing locked up.
At BetMGM, Hunter accounts for 17.3 percent of all Heisman bets and 35.2 percent of all money wagered on the Heisman, making him by far the biggest liability.
Jeanty is not out of the Heisman race. Neither is Ward. But oddsmakers need you to think this is all over to save themselves some money going back to bettors.
