Joe Flacco’s unlikely career revival is over. It lasted approximately 11 months and 10 games.
Flacco’s emergence as the quarterback capable of taking the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs in 2023 made him Anthony Richardson’s mentor, then successor, for an Indianapolis Colts team built to win in 2024. He was one of few veteran free agents to join a nine-win roster mostly intact from the season prior. He was supposed to help push Richardson to a place of stability behind center and, barring that, provide the leverage needed to break a three-year playoff drought.
Neither of these things happened. Richardson was a mess, so head coach Shane Steichen gave the keys to his veteran quarterback hoping he could set the floor the young gunslinger failed to maintain. Instead, Flacco looked like the discarded veteran who lingered as a free agent into November last season. He lost each of his starts after his latest, non-injury-related promotion.
Now he’s been reverted to a backup role.
Colts have gone back to Anthony Richardson as the starting quarterback.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 13, 2024
Richardson came back from a hip injury only to lose his starting job before Week 9. On one hand, it was justifiable; the Colts had a .500 record despite the league’s worst quarterback play. In the short term, Flacco provided the best opportunity for instant gratification.
In the long term, however, it was a risky play. Richardson was only 18 months removed from being the fourth overall pick in the NFL Draft. The Colts weren’t closing the books on his potential, but they were making a direct statement about it just 10 starts into his career. Out went a player whose game swung wildly between zero and 100, replaced by a veteran who at his best might top out at a 70.
Flacco didn’t top out. In two starts since replacing a healthy Richardson he’s thrown four interceptions and just two touchdown passes. He’s been responsible for -22.1 expected points added (EPA) in those losses, each of which came by 10 points or fewer.
No quarterback in the league has been more detrimental to his offense in that stretch — and Cooper Rush saw significant playing time the last two weeks.
via rbsdm.com and the author.
The Colts looked at that and realized there’s no floor to speak of. Flacco was the 32nd-most valuable quarterback in a field of 32. There’s nowhere to go but up.
Thus, the cannon-armed young quarterback who cannot stop running himself into trouble (or out of breath) will get the chance to raise a bar that cannot get much lower. Richardson is capable of great things. We know this because we’ve seen it, even in the midst of a season where he was benched for a 38-year-old journeyman.
bah gawd, A-Rich. @GVOaant
: #HOUvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/5H0hklc1nX— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
Tantalizing deep throws aside — and he’s only completed nine in 30 attempts this season, per SIS — Richardson has been a mess. He’s been the version of Josh Allen we’d been warned about when the Buffalo Bills took a risk on another gigantic, rocket-armed scrambler with accuracy issues. Allen eventually rose above the concerns that followed him out of the University of Wyoming thanks to help from Stefon Diggs and an offense that played to his strengths.
Richardson has been unable to follow that path despite a deep core of playmakers around him. While there’s no All-Pro WR1 in the lineup, wideouts like Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell create a smorgasbord of targets who can get open across the field. He’s completed just 44.4 percent of his passes.
He’s been bad when blitzed (26.5 percent completion rate) and bad when there’s no pressure (48.1 percent). His on-target throw rate has fallen from 74 percent as a rookie (25th best among starting QBs) to 55 percent this season (more than eight points worse than any non-Colts quarterback). He’s a devastating runner but these scrambles and designed runs are the genesis of his recurring injury concerns as a pro.
The Colts future hinges on his improvement. He wasn’t going to get better on the bench. He might not on the field, either, but that’s almost besides the point. Indianapolis had nothing to lose by tossing Richardson into the fray. Either he develops and becomes the franchise quarterback the team needed (at least for one more season) or he’s awful and the Colts are stuck with the league’s worst passer, which is… right where Flacco left them.
Indianapolis remains in the playoff hunt, even if its chances aren’t great. The more important factor is figuring out what Richardson can be on a weekly basis for an offense that shouldn’t be as unpleasant to watch as it is. The Colts’ quarterback clock just restarted; they’ve got eight more weeks to figure it out.
