Walker Buehler’s nightmare season continued last night against the Padres. The 30-year-old right-hander allowed six runs in five innings in game three of the NLDS and did not strike out a single batter. Performances like this have been the norm for Buehler this year. He is amid the worst season of his MLB career, and it is looking more likely by the day that he will not return to the Dodgers or get the big free agent contract many thought he would get just a few years ago.
While his 2024 struggles are unfortunate for him individually, they also provide the bottom-feeding White Sox with a potential opportunity to sign a talented pitcher at a discount because of his recent injury history and poor performance.
Buehler underwent a second Tommy John surgery in August of 2022. His ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) was replaced and his flexor tendon was repaired too. His injuries and subsequent recovery were so significant that he did not make a single MLB appearance in 2023. While he returned this season, his 2024 campaign has been a disaster. His regular season ERA stood at 5.38 and he allowed more hits per nine innings than ever. The 2024 season has seen him strike out batters at the lowest rate of his MLB career. He also dealt with hip issues earlier this season, adding a further wrinkle to his terrible season.
There are obvious reasons why Buehler has struggled so badly. For one, his 93.7 MPH average fastball velocity in 2024 is the lowest of his entire MLB career per Baseball Savant, while his 41.6 hard hit% is the highest. In addition, he is generating whiffs and strikeouts at the lowest rate ever as well. His curveball has lost effectiveness, going from a 4 run value in 2022 to a -5 run value this season. His changeup has gone from a 3 run value to a -5 run value over the same span. In simple terms, Buehler has become a lot more hittable over time, and his pitches have lost effectiveness for the most part. Whether that is due to his injuries or not, it helps explain why he has been so bad in 2024.
From the White Sox perspective, signing Buehler makes sense despite his struggles. While the team currently has plenty of starting pitching depth, it is a volatile group. Garrett Crochet will likely be traded this winter, and there are many question marks after him. Drew Thorpe, Jonathan Cannon, Sean Burke, Davis Martin, Ky Bush, Jairo Iriarte, and others all figure to factor into the White Sox 2025 rotation in some capacity, but all are young pitchers who will likely have innings limitations. They could use a veteran arm to eat innings and mentor a young rotation. Buehler fits that description. Not only does he come from a winning organization, but he has achieved much success individually over his career until recently.
If he turns things around, Buehler could become a trade chip at the 2025 trade deadline. For a White Sox team in a deep rebuild, they need to accumulate as many young players as possible. Buehler could help be a bridge player toward that goal, just like Erick Fedde was in 2024.
From Buehler’s perspective, the fit in Chicago is more cloudy. One could argue that if the Dodgers could not get him back on track, how could the White Sox? Given the Dodgers pitching infrastructure and history of resurrecting pitchers’ careers, that opinion holds validity. In addition, the White Sox are not a destination for free agents at all. Buehler could sign with a much better team this winter if he wanted, despite his bad 2024 season.
However, the White Sox as a landing spot could make sense if he is looking for a situation with zero pressure to get his career in the right direction again. Pitching for a team like the Dodgers put Buehler in the spotlight every time he took the mound and gave him no margin for error. That would not be the case on the south side. He would have ample opportunities to work through his problems on a White Sox team that will not win anything in 2025. Given his poor season, it is fair to assume Buehler would want a one-year prove-it deal to rebuild his value. Jack Flaherty, his current teammate, was in a similar situation last year. By his standards, he had a rough season in 2023 and signed with the Tigers for one year/$14 million last offseason. A similar contract for Buehler seems logical.
There is still a long way to go until the postseason concludes and the offseason officially begins. The White Sox will have their work cut out for them this winter. As a team with minimal talent and no obvious path to contending any time soon, they will need to get creative to build up their pool of young talent for the future. Signing Walker Buehler on a prove-it deal with the hopes of flipping him at the deadline might be a somewhat realistic option to improve the roster for 2024 and potentially for years to come.
