WHOEVER you fancy in the Arc de Triomphe there is no doubt it’s a prize up for grabs.
Any half decent form student could make a reasonable case for at least half of the field in the Qatar-sponsored showpiece.
The main reason for that is because there are at least four horses who bypass the contest who would have had serious claims of being sent off favourite.
Goliath and Calandagan miss out because they are geldings, City of Troy is not there because he’s heading for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, while Economics is on target for the Champion Stakes at Ascot.
To be honest, I’m also stunned Yorkshire Oaks heroine Content is being sent to the shorter Prix de l’Opera. So there is another giving the Arc the swerve.
What’s fantastic is that despite those watching on from their stable, this is an Arc de Triomphe that still conjures up much interest and debate.
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It’s an Arc you have to have strong opinions on, but such is its makeup in doing so it would be so easy to be hopelessly wrong.
This, though, is not a column for beating about the bush.
I’ve backed two horses for the Group 1 extravaganza which hopefully will give me something to cheer about as I’m part of tomorrow’s big race broadcasting team on ITV3.
The duo in question are Los Angeles and Shin Emperor. I can’t split them, for reasons I will come to in a minute.
It would be wrong to call Leopardstown’s Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes an Arc prep, but for those two horses I think it was just that.
Economics defeated Auguste Rodin on that occasion, which is top class form, with Shin Emperor third and Los Angeles fourth.
Let’s start with Shin Emperor. The reason I can’t be all in on him is the ground. He’s unproven on a surface with juice and he may hate it. So he brings a huge risk.
Newmarket
1.30 Min Huna
2.05 Afentiko each-way
2.40 Darnation NAP
Ascot
1.50 Relief Rally
2.25 Hamish
3.00 Vadream each-way
3.35 Volterra each-way
Redcar
3.20 Billboard Star each-way
However, having watched many of his runs in Japan he’s a horse who I’m stunned has not run over a mile and a half more than once. Even on the only occasion he has done so, in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), he kept on strongly.
So I think it’s easy to argue Shin Emperor has much more to give over the Arc trip, and added to his chance he was hampered in Ireland before battling on well to get the better of Los Angeles for the minor positions.
Shin Emperor could easily provide Japan with a first Arc success. But the ground has prevented other raiders before him showing their best and it may stop this son of Siyouni.
Los Angeles, the Irish Derby hero, is a solid mile and a half stayer who brings Classic form to the table.
The Epsom third went on to take the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York from the St Leger runner-up Illinois but was never going to find the speed test in Ireland up his street. In the circumstances he performed with great credit.
Los Angeles has only had seven races and goes with juice in the ground, having landed the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on very soft as a juvenile.
The son of Camelot should still have better to come and I’ll be stunned if he’s not right in the mix.
I don’t think Bluestocking is quite good enough, for all she will put her usual shift in under Rossa Ryan for the outstanding Ralph Beckett, while impressive French Derby victor Look de Vega has to prove his stamina after flopping in the Prix Niel when connections said he needed the outing. Time will tell.
Sosie won that Niel so he can’t be ignored for the master Andre Fabre. If Sosie scores no one will be surprised although he was only third to Look de Vega at Chantilly.
Sunway will go better than his odds suggest for David Menuisier, but I can’t see Al Riffa being good enough.
If you want to chance one each-way at a big price maybe take a look at Continuous.
With no natural pace in the race, Continuous may well be sacrificed for stable companion Los Angeles, but if he’s not and given a chance from off the gallop he could surprise a few people.
Continuous’s held up runs in the St Leger, Voltigeur and in this event twelve months ago are solid. He’s an interesting outside but I would not want him on the front end.
What a terrific betting race the 2024 Arc promises to be. Los Angeles and Shin Emperor for me. You pay your money and take your chance.
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