When Texas made clear last spring that Quinn Ewers was its quarterback of the present and Arch Manning is the future, it made plenty of sense.
As he’ll tell you in his Dr. Pepper commercial, it was Ewers who led the Longhorns to the College Football Playoff last year when only four teams got in. He didn’t need no backup.
That was all well and good until Saturday night, when present and future collided under unfortunate circumstances.
Early in the second quarter against UTSA, Ewers suffered a strained abdomen that kept him out for the rest of the contest. At the time, Texas led 14-0. Now, UTSA may have gotten thrashed against a good Texas State team a week ago, but Jeff Traylor’s program is rarely a pushover.
Which is what made what happened next so stunning. Manning entered in relief of Ewers and made it look like he was playing a video game on the easiest setting available.
First was a 19-yard touchdown to DeAndre Moore Jr. Two offensive plays later it was Manning running 67 yards to the end zone himself untouched. The sophomore and Isaiah Bond connected for a 51-yard touchdown to open the third quarter. Then he hit Ryan Wingo with a 75-yard touchdown pass for good measure.
Johntay Cook II caught a 12-yard touchdown pass from Manning to open the fourth quarter because why not?
Arch Manning: Texas QB wows fans in relief of Quinn Ewers
When it was all done, when Texas polished off a 56-7 win, Manning had completed 9-of-12 passes for 223 yards and four touchdowns with another 53 yards and a score on the ground.
After each highlight reel play, Manning’s Heisman Trophy odds kept getting shorter and shorter. That wouldn’t be too noteworthy except for one small detail: Quinn Ewers became the clear Heisman favorite only six days ago.
Before Saturday, Manning’s odds were 150-1 at BetMGM. Essentially same as they had been since the betting market opened. Ewers was at +475.
By Saturday night, Ewers had dropped back to +2000. One spot ahead of him was Manning at +1500, the seventh-best odds on the board.
It’s an absolutely wild surge. And, sure, part of this is oddsmakers limiting their liability. At BetMGM, Manning accounted for 0.7 percent of bets and 0.1 percent of the betting handle on the Heisman. That may be minuscule, but consider those bets were placed at 100-1 or longer. It makes sense the books would shorten his odds significantly to make sure they don’t take a beating.
But now the race gets complicated on a number of levels.
Start with the fact we don’t know Ewers’ status moving forward yet.
“It’s an oblique strain, an abdomen strain, remains to be seen the seriousness of that and the length of that, but that’s what it is,” Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said after the game. “We don’t think it’s anything structural or broken or anything like that. It was an odd play.”
That means he could start next week or miss some more time. The Longhorns host Louisiana-Monroe next week before a Mississippi State team that lost 41-17 to Toledo on Saturday makes the trip to Austin to open SEC play.
Which is to say there’s no reason at all to rush Ewers back if you can get him at full strength for the Red River Showdown in Week 7.
But what happens if Manning continues putting up silly numbers — which he should against those opponents — before Ewers returns?
Does Sarkisian mess with offensive cohesion if his team is steamrolling opponents? And if he is willing to switch back to Ewers after a few weeks, how are Heisman voters supposed to react if both quarterbacks prove extremely successful leading the Longhorns?
Do the two players cannibalize each other’s chances?
Granted, these are the type of problems coaches dream of having, but they are problems nonetheless.
First things first, everyone in Austin is hoping Ewers doesn’t need more than a week to get healthy. But whether there’s a true QB controversy in the locker room or not, oddsmakers aren’t taking any chances.
Bettors certainly don’t decide who wins the Heisman, but following the money is typically a good place to start. If it only took one half of football to knock Ewers from favorite to behind his own backup, where do their Heisman campaigns go from here?
It’ll be worth monitoring the odds for both QBs this week as the money continues to flow in before Week 4.
In the meantime, Miami (FL) Cam Ward is now the clear favorite at +400, followed by Jackson Dart at +600 and Jalen Milroe at +700.
The one thing we know for sure is that after three weeks, the Heisman race is officially on.
