Each week this college football season, BetFTW will take a look at the 2023 Heisman Trophy race and break down the contenders. Check back every Tuesday as the best college football players in the country jockey for position with both oddsmakers and bettors. All odds via BetMGM.
The Heisman Trophy race could have officially began in Week 0, but Florida State put up an absolute dud against Georgia Tech in Dublin and SMU looked completely discombobulated against Nevada.
So here we are. Week 1. A full slate of games and a number of contenders who should put up massive numbers on Saturday (unless, of course, they play on Thursday, Friday or Sunday because the NFL graciously gave college fans a weekend to themselves).
You know the deal. We’re running through the top-10 contenders by the odds — and the odds fluctuate for a number of reasons. It could be a player sees a huge increase because they performed well, or because a bunch of bettors dumped a heap of money on them. We’re not here to litigate who should have the best odds of winning. We’re just looking at what the numbers say.
Let’s get into it.
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
Drew Allar has a new offensive coordinator in Andy Kotelnicki, who previously turned Kansas’ Jalon Daniels into a Heisman contender in his own right and developed a system that was able to succeed with Jason Bean and Cole Ballard when the Jayhawks’ starter was injured. If Penn State starts putting up points, Allar’s candidacy gets interesting in a hurry. First, the No. 8 Nittany Lions have to get past West Virginia this weekend.
Mizzou’s Cook and Oklahoma’s Arnold get much softer openers against Murray State and Temple, respectively — though in Arnold’s case, following Dillon Gabriel as QB1 for the Sooners isn’t exactly the most enviable position.
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
Speaking of Daniels, every indication out of Lawrence is that the Jayhawks’ star is healthy and ready to lead the Big 12 contender. If so, he’s a legit Heisman candidate as a dual-threat QB — that is if head coach Lance Leipold is OK with him keeping the ball a ton given his history of back injuries. There’s no plan B for Kansas, either. If it’s not Daniels under center it’s either Ballard, who was QB3 last year, or freshman Isaiah Marshall stepping in.
As for Sanders, it’s put up or shut up time. He certainly has the talent to win this award, but no one is even entering the Heisman conversation with less than eight wins. Which is double what Colorado finished with last year.
Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
Will Howard transferring to Ohio State solved a lot of problems for Kansas State, which believes it has a generational talent in Avery Johnson. The Wichita native posted a 91.3 QBR with nearly 800 yards of total offense and 12 total touchdowns last season on zero interceptions as Howard’s QB2.
Texas A&M replacing Jimbo Fisher with Mike Elko should help Weigman’s case after how he helped the rise of Riley Leonard at Duke last year. That’s to say nothing of the fact the Aggies have arguably the softest schedule of any SEC contender.
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
Leonard has also moved on from Duke, landing with Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame squad as the heir to Sam Hartman’s offense. The Irish will have to be perfect to make the College Football Playoff as an independent without an automatic bid available, which will directly tie into Leonard’s Heisman campaign.
Nussmeier, meanwhile, has an even tougher job stepping in for reigning Heisman-winner Jayden Daniels at LSU. The last time a school produced back-to-back Heisman QBs was Kyler Murray (2018) and Baker Mayfield (2017) with Oklahoma.
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
No Tennessee player has ever won the Heisman. Not Manning. Not Majors. Not Shuler. Iamaleava, a redshirt freshman and former five-star recruit out of Long Beach, California will look to end that streak for good after winning Citrus Bowl MVP last year.
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
Cam Ward has gone coast to-coast. After an eye-opening campaign with Washington State last season, he bolted for Miami (Fla.) where the Hurricanes need him to get the program into the playoff conversation for head coach Mario Cristobal to avoid the hot seat.
Howard left Kansas State for Ohio State and finds himself with more tools than ever thanks to the likes of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. But those two tailbacks could easily end up stealing a bit of his thunder when it comes to the Heisman race.
(Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
Dart is being asked to do more with less at Ole Miss this year. After keeping his team afloat in both the SEC and the playoff hunt for most of 2023, Ole Miss fell off after a late-season loss to Alabama. With Judkins off to Ohio State, Dart’s performance has never been more crucial to Mississippi’s success.
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
Milroe and Ewers were two of BetMGM’s FOUR (4!) co-favorites to open the betting market alongside Dillon Gabriel and Carson Beck, now they almost feel like value wagers at this price. Almost. I’d probably wait until after Texas plays Michigan in Week 2 at a minimum — and without any serious competition until Week 3 against Wisconsin, I’d wait on Milroe, too.
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
The starting QB on the AP preseason No. 1 team is always going to be considered a Heisman favorite these days. But with Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers off to the pros, Beck will have to do more than ever to show he’s worthy of the award in a year when the race feels as up for grabs as it’s been in a quite some time.
Odds Last Week (Opening Odds):
The bad news for Dillon Gabriel is that only one preseason Heisman favorite has won the award since 2009. The good news? It was Oregon’s Marcus Mariota. The even better news? The Ducks are going to give Gabriel every opportunity to put up absurd numbers this year.
