Last winter, it was believed that the Chicago Cubs were among the last remaining teams to have a mutual interest with arguably the best player in baseball, Shohei Ohtani. It appeared to be down to them, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ultimately, the Dodgers won the sweepstakes with a contract worth around $600 million.
In 2025, it won’t be quite the same market. However, another franchise-changing player, Juan Soto, will hit free agency. He’s expected to land about whatever deal he wants to.
Soto came to the New York Yankees after being traded by the San Diego Padres. He’s teamed up with outfielder Aaron Judge to create one of the most dominant one-two punches in a lineup we’ve seen. Soto is batting .296 with 37 home runs and an OPS of 1.027. Needless to say, that would put him at the top of any chart the Cubs have going.
The Cubs will once again be rumored as a suitor for Soto in free agency. Projections have a lot of money coming off the books at the conclusion of 2024. But as you should know by now, that’s not how the Cubs roll.
Lately, there’s been a lot of talk about how much money the Cubs could have available to them for 2025 and beyond. Reportedly, they could have anywhere from $50-$90 million coming off the books and readily available for them in this upcoming free agency class. Sure, that’s a lot of wiggle room. But will they really use it?
A couple of weeks ago, during the Cubs for a Cure radiothon on 670 the Score, Danny Parkins talked with Crane Kennyd and Jed Hoyer, the Cubs’ presidents. He asked questions about the payroll opening and what fans could expect in free agency and 2025. Shocking to no one, they were very indirect with their response, not really giving anything to work with.
However, they were very open about how an upcoming event could positively impact their spending. Wrigley Field will host the NHL Winter Classic on New Year’s Eve. The Chicago Blackhawks will host the St. Louis Blues in a hockey game on the playing surface. Then, the Big Ten has agreed to have a series of men’s and women’s games be played on the ice after that. Per Hoyer and Kenney, the profit from these events will go towards the 2025 budget.
No.
The Cubs are very consistent with how they say the budget is planned out. They ensure they pay all the bills and personnel behind the scenes that keep all operations going and afloat. Whatever is left after that is said to go towards the budget for the next baseball season.
But Jed Hoyer and the Cubs believe so much in the players they have grown themselves that paying over the moon for Soto would not be as satisfying to them as having, say, Owen Caissie breakout as a franchise cornerstone. They also do not like giving out long-term, high-price contracts to anybody—and I mean anybody.
Juan Soto would bring the star power (and literal power) the North Side of Chicago has not seen since Sammy Sosa. If he were even 85% of what he has produced over the last few seasons, it would alter the franchise’s direction for the better. But this is not the kind of business this regime conducts.
This regime wants to win the deals it makes more than anything else. With that mentality, signing Soto long-term for, say, $500 million would be a loss. As much as they should be like the Yankees and the Dodgers, they’re merely a mid-tier spending staff. Plus, they’re not even that good at it.
“In Soto’s case, the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs and both Los Angeles teams could likely afford him but are long shots to make a real push.”
Jeff Passan, via ESPN+ in his article, “Passan’s early MLB free agency preview: Soto, Burnes, more.”
Juan Soto will be the number one player on the free agent market in 2025. His talent and abilities are hard to put a price on. However, in his latest article on ESPN+ (Subscription Required), Jeff Passan says he and other executives believe the floor for Soto’s contract will hover around $500 million. That’s at a minimum.
The Yankees are cornered in a position where it may cost them more to lose him than to bring him back. That could hike the price even higher, possibly into Ohtani territory. The Cubs paying closer to $600 million for an outfielder when they have multiple in their system they feel too confident in is far-fetched—frustrating but far-fetched.
The Cubs will spend money this offseason, but it will probably not involve Juan Soto. They will also get good looks at the young talent they’ve been bragging about for almost half a decade now. Whether Jed Hoyer’s seat as the President of Baseball Operations is hot remains to be seen. But missing the playoffs in 2025 could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
