A new era of ACC football begins this fall with the arrival of Cal, Stanford and SMU. But will the conference race diverge from the road so often taken?
Either Florida State or Clemson has won 12 of the past 13 ACC championships, the exception being Pittsburgh’s surprising run in 2021.
The Seminoles and Tigers are heavy favorites once again. But challengers lurk.
Our predictions for the conference race:
1. Florida State: The absolute class of the conference, unless dark clouds linger from the playoff snub, bad breaks rule the season, everything goes haywire and the Noles finish closer to the middle than the top.
2. Clemson: The Tigers have a lower ceiling than FSU but a higher floor. They visit Tallahassee on Oct. 5, so we’ll know the frontrunner’s identity with two months remaining.
3. Miami: A critical year for coach Mario Cristobal, who is 6-10 in conference play over two seasons at his alma mater. Will he make the most of quarterback Cam Ward, the Washington State transfer? Don’t count on it.
4. SMU: We would be mildly surprised, but not shocked — definitely not shocked — if the Mustangs won the conference in their rookie season. They are deep, well-coached and playing without the burden of expectations.
5. Virginia Tech: The Hokies return 21 starters, including quarterback Kyron Drones, from a team that tied for fourth place last year. No reason they cannot contend again.
6. NC State: Dave Doeren is one of the most under-appreciated coaches in the country. In fact, we might be underestimating the Wolfpack right here. They are 16-8 in conference play the past three years.
7. Cal: He doesn’t receive the same level of attention, but Jadyn Ott might be the best tailback in the ACC — better than Miami’s Damien Martinez and UNC’s Omarion Hampton. If the Bears can pair Ott with a respectable passing game, a top-half finish — and a bowl berth — is entirely possible.
8. Louisville: The Hotline isn’t as optimistic about Louisville as other pundits, largely because we long ago adopted a believe-it-when-we-see-it approach to quarterback Tyler Shough. If he proves us wrong this season, good for him.
9. North Carolina: Does septuagenarian coach Mack Brown have one more run to glory remaining? No, he does not. The Tar Heels aren’t nearly good enough on the lines of scrimmage.
10. Wake Forest: Invariably, the ACC season will generate a handful of upside surprises and a few disappointments — all relative to expectations, of course. Don’t bet against Dave Clawson and Co. producing one of the former in Winston-Salem.
11. Syracuse: The Orange have a new coach, Fran Brown, and a new quarterback, Kyle McCord, the former Ohio State starter. But we expected more of the same from a program that typically finishes below .500 in league play.
12. Georgia Tech: Nobody in the ACC faces a more difficult schedule than Georgia Tech, which opens against Florida State (in Ireland), finishes against Georgia (in Athens) and plays Miami and Notre Dame. Good luck with that.
13. Pittsburgh: The lines of scrimmage are solid — not on the ACC’s top tier but certainly not at the bottom. As we see it, the dearth of first-rate playmakers stands as the primary issue for the Panthers.
14. Stanford: Second-year coach Troy Taylor will make the most of the modest talent at his disposal. But it’s difficult to find more than four or five victories on a schedule that includes four cross-country trips in a seven-week span in the middle of the season.
15. Boston College: If the Eagles somehow become bowl-eligible, give Bill O’Brien the ACC Coach of the Year award — they don’t have enough talent on either side of scrimmage to win six games. They might not have enough to win four.
16. Duke: By the time the basketball season starts (Nov. 4), the Blue Devils’ football program could be 0-5 in ACC play, with little chance to reverse the trajectory.
17. Virginia: With 17 teams and only eight conference games, the ACC race is bound to produce three- or four-team ties all the way down the standings. If the Cavs finish at the bottom, they likely will have company.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline
