It’s one thing to bet on the San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West at -200 when they’re returning basically the same top-five offense from a year ago. It’s another thing to do it while they’re expected to split with leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
I, for one, am not that bold.
Would the Niners still be favorites to come out on top even without Aiyuk? Yeah, sure. But they wouldn’t be nearly as much of a lock. What becomes of their offense without an elite X receiver to open up the field? What’s the trickle-down effect? How does Brock Purdy respond? These are all variables that make it too big of a gamble. That’s before we get to the holdout of All-Pro LT Trent Williams and the potential for him to miss time.
The problem with questioning the Niners, though, is if you aren’t picking them to win the West, is it worth betting anyone else?
Favored to again represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, the 49ers deserve their distant first-place odds above this group. Any other pick is a long-shot. But I do think a couple teams are close enough to pounce if the armor of the Niners is cracked in any way — even if it’s just mental exhaustion from so many deep playoff runs ending in disappointment.
The Los Angeles Rams didn’t fade the way people thought they might in 2023 and finished just two games behind San Francisco in the division — after starting 3-6. With a quicker start, the Rams at +325 could make this a more compelling race throughout the 2024 season.
Losing Aaron Donald is a big blow, but if their committee approach to filling his vacancy works even the slightest, LA will be right back in the playoff picture. Not to mention, they may have a healthy Cooper Kupp going into the year, something they didn’t have last season.
Those things combined with the steady presence of Sean McVay at head coach are why the Rams are my favorite sleeper in this division, though they aren’t the only option.
The Seahawks at +750 are an interesting team to watch under new head coach Mike Macdonald, who earned the job by coaching arguably the best defense in the NFL last season in Baltimore. Because Seattle’s offense still has the same pieces from a top-10 scoring unit in 2022, Seattle is a breakout candidate if Macdonald can get the defense to rank just in the top half of the league.
From cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen to first-round pick Byron Murphy II, he has plenty of talent to work with, so I wouldn’t doubt it. I’m just not sure they’ll be effective enough against the run to leap LA or San Francisco. I also have reservations about whether the offensive line can keep Geno Smith healthy. Regardless, Seattle will be a tough team to beat.
Even the Cardinals have to feel good about where they are entering the season after winning three games down the stretch of 2023 upon the return of Kyler Murray, then adding Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft. At +1200, they aren’t a team anyone should be looking to bet on yet, because the defense simply isn’t ready to compete at a division-winning level. But they won’t be the same pushovers they’ve been of late.
Ultimately, though, this division remains the 49ers’ to lose. If they do lose it, my bet is on the Rams to take that mantle.
