Allen has been a top three quarterback since 2020, but his toughest test may be keep the Bills afloat as they reload.
Josh Allen has gotten flawed Buffalo Bills teams to the postseason before. He’s earned MVP votes in the process.
But if Allen can get the 2024 Bills to the top of the AFC East, he may finally bring home the league’s most coveted single player award.
Make no mistake, this year’s Buffalo team won’t look too much like the one that rallied to lock down the division after toiling in post-Jim Kelly muck for more than two decades. Stefon Diggs, the wide receiver who helped turn Allen from a big-armed lottery ticket of a quarterback into a force of nature, is now a Houston Texan. Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White, the trio who bolstered a top five scoring defense four of the last five seasons, have been scattered to the wind. Low-key contributors who came through in big moments like Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse and Leonard Floyd are gone as well.
That’s the result of a mini-rebuild aimed at replacing veterans aging out of their most productive era and cutting costs. It hasn’t been cheap, either from a talent standpoint or a salary cap one. The Bills have $61.2 million of their salary sheet committed to players who are no longer on the roster, leaving nearly 24 percent of their spending on dead cap. Despite this, things aren’t especially rosy for 2025; the team’s current commitments place it an estimated $3.7 million over next year’s spending limit — eighth worst in the NFL, per Over the Cap.
This is at least fairly grim. And while it may damper Buffalo’s preseason hype, it may not matter because the man behind center plays football like an inebriated witch got a moose and a Ford F-150 to mate and then made its child a quarterback.
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*Not applicable in Western New York.
Since his breakthrough in 2020, Allen has finished second, third and fifth in MVP voting. This coincided with Diggs’ arrival, to be sure, but also came despite a lack of playmakers around his All-Pro wideout. The player with the second-most catches on the roster since the pandemic season is Cole Beasley, who was 31 years old in 2020 and played just two games for the team after 2021. Davis had moments where he looked like a dynamite deep threat and Dawson Knox is a viable safety valve, but this wasn’t a Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle situation in New York.
Despite this, Allen thrived as a passer. The guy who entered the NFL with major accuracy issues completed nearly 66 percent of his attempts after 2019. He averaged 35 touchdown passes and more than 4,500 passing yards per 17-game season. He ran like a wildebeest doing his damnedest to orphan a lion prince.
Since 2020, 35 quarterbacks have taken at least 1,000 snaps that weren’t handoffs. Allen is, in terms of expected points added (EPA) per play, the third most impactful player among them.
via rbsdm.com and the author.
The two men in front of him, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, have six MVPs and four Super Bowl wins between them. Allen, on the other hand, is a one-time All-Pro (second team) and two-time Pro Bowler. He’s only once made it beyond the Divisional Round of the postseason.
Is this a flaw with the player or the world around him? Allen hasn’t been perfect in the playoffs, but he’s still pretty dang good. He has a 21:4 touchdown:interception ratio and is 5-4 in win-or-go-home games since 2020. His 102.4 passer rating in the postseason is 5.5 points higher than his 96.9 regular season rating in that same span. 25 quarterbacks have recorded at least 50 playoff snaps since then; his 0.210 EPA/play ranks fifth among them behind Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, Mahomes and Brock Purdy.
via rbsdm.com and the author.
Of course, that’s a lot of words to tell you what is far better illustrated with his play on the field.
Let’s begin with the depth chart. Allen can create gains with his tight ends. Knox is a useful blocker who can be relied on as a short range target. Dalton Kincaid is more viable as a target and should see his route tree expand after a solid rookie year — his 1.39 yards per route run placed him between Jake Ferguson and Kyle Pitts among 2023 tight ends, per Sumer Sports.
He’s also got a bellwether tailback in James Cook, whose 105 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) ranked ninth among NFL runners last fall. If he can’t go, rookie Ray Davis is a workhorse who stood out at Temple, Vanderbilt and Kentucky while averaging more than two receptions per game in the SEC. This is a viable support network!
Then, things get dicey. The team’s WR1 slot is a preseason race between Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and rookie second round pick Keon Coleman. Jockeying for spots behind them is a group of players you *want* to be good, but haven’t been able to hold that mantle for long. Mack Hollins. Chase Claypool. Andy Isabella. Marquez Valdes-Scantling. It’s a depth chart made of scratch-off lottery tickets.
The defense is primed for a step backward as well. Poyer, Hyde and White are all gone, as is 2023’s sack leader. Fortunately, there are a handful of young pieces who could excel with opportunity. Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa will punch up the edge rush after combining for 11.5 sacks last season and will get to work alongside Ed Oliver, who remains a star (whether or not Von Miller, who had zero sacks in 12 games last season and is under contract through 2027, makes an impact feels less optimistic).
Kaiir Elam has looked solid in training camp and Christian Benford is rounding into a useful starting presence alongside Rasul Douglas. Cole Bishop was a smart second round pick who can thump running backs at the line, even if he has questions to be answered as a direction-changing center fielder.
Then you get to the veterans who remain. Daquan Jones’ value was best illustrated by his absence last fall and the hit the Bills defense took around him. Matt Milano missed a dozen games last season but was a first-team All-Pro in 2022 and is, when revved up and turned loose, one of the scariest tacklers in the NFL.
prayers up for Mike White's ribcage, or whatever remains of it pic.twitter.com/TgWYAwkKeB
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 11, 2022
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On paper, the defense is taking a step back by trading in older Pro Bowlers. But the guys ready to fill that void aren’t practice squad call-ups. They’re a chunk of former Day 1 and Day 2 draft prospects who’ll now get the chance to fulfill that potential on Sundays. This is the future for which head coach Sean McDermott had planned, and with seven defensive players among the team’s last 12 picks in the top three rounds, it’s one the Bills can handle.
They’re also betting Allen can handle a depleted receiving corps that took the very Patriots-esque risk of trading Diggs a year too early rather than a year too late. If you squint hard enough, the Buffalo offense comes into focus. The bones of a solid offensive line are there, flanked by a dynamic 1-2 punch at tight end and a dependable young running back.
If the Bills are going to keep their AFC East title streak alive, they’ll need more. They’ll need their mutant quarterback to turn a mishmash of unproven wideouts into something better. Shakir, by virtue of a 1.34 yards per route run that ranked in the top 35 of all receivers last season, is the most likely breakout candidate.
It won’t be easy, but turning a toolsy mess of a young quarterback into one of the league’s best players wasn’t easy either. If anyone can pull it off, it’s Josh Allen.
