UFC 304 has the chance to dramatically change the course of two divisions.
Atop the card, Leon Edwards goes for the third defense of his welterweight title when he meets Belal Muhammad in a grudge match three years in the making. Neither man has lost a fight in years, but something has to give when they collide in Manchester, England, on Saturday.
The co-main features MMA’s true No. 1 heavyweight Tom Aspinall defending an interim title against Curtis Blaydes. Like Edwards vs. Muhammad, this is a runback of a bout that had an unsatisfying finish. Can Aspinall set things right after losing to Blaydes via injury the first time around, or will Blaydes make it 2-0 against Aspinall and turn the top of the heavyweight rankings upside down?
MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew sit down for a spot of tea and to chat about the many questions looming around one of 2024’s best pay-per-view lineups.
Heck: Leon Edwards wins, but he’ll have to hold on tight to do it.
Belal Muhammad is one of the most underrated fighters in the sport right now, and absolutely does not get enough credit for the run he’s on. He’s the deserving guy who should get this opportunity. The problem is that Edwards is just a more well-rounded fighter who has home-field advantage and an even bigger chip on his shoulder.
Don’t get it twisted: Muhammad needs this one way more than Edwards does. This is one-and-done for Muhammad. If he loses, there will not be another UFC title shot coming his way. On top of that, fans will truly “Remember the Name” if he loses due to all of his wild predictions for this fight, and, to be fair, his somewhat brushing off of the champion as a tough challenge. If you think Jamahal Hill is having a tough year, it could be even worse for Muhammad if he doesn’t leave Manchester with the title because the internet never forgets.
As far as the question goes, my prediction is Edwards wins a unanimous decision. The champion starts strong, wins the first two rounds cleanly, and wins the third, although Muhammad gains some momentum. Round 4 goes to the challenger, and Round 5 is the game-of-inches stanza. In the end, Edwards gets a pair of 48-47s and a 49-46 to notch another defense of his belt
Meshew: Leon Edwards wins in classic, uninspiring Leon Edwards fashion. But that’s OK because sometimes we need to eat our vegetables.
Edwards is almost certainly the fighter with the biggest delta between how good they are and how exciting their fights are. He’s among the very best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and yet he only has two memorable highlights in his entire career: The Kamaru Usman head kick (all-time great) and when Nate Diaz almost finished him in the final minute of their fight. Not great, Bob!
And the reality is that Edwards is so good because he’s boring. He doesn’t want to have exciting fights. He wants to control pace and range and minimize risk. He fights like late-career Georges St-Pierre only he never had a Matt Serra type of loss to push him toward a safety-first mentality. It’s simply who he is — a man who is exceptionally skilled and talented but who will never, ever put the pedal down, even in fights he should.
So on Saturday, Edwards will come out and set the tone early with stance switches, double jabs, and body kicks. He’ll control range and pivot and completely stymie the linear offense of Muhammad. He may even score a takedown or two if the opportunity presents itself. And Belal will be stuck perpetually behind. He doesn’t have the footwork, skill set, or raw athleticism to trouble Edwards, so he’ll simply fall behind in every round and probably lose 49-46 on all the scorecards. Then, having successfully eaten our leafy greens at UFC 304, we can move on to far more appetizing options like Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Lee: Call me crazy, I think these two give us a Fight of the Year candidate.
I’ll stop short of expecting Edwards and Muhammad to deliver a front-runner for 2024’s best bout, but they could end up on the short list after 25 minutes of high-level martial arts wizardry. Edwards needs the right dance partner to bring out the best in him and Muhammad fits the bill with his newfound aggression, technical acumen, and genuine animosity for the champ. In 17 UFC appearances, Edwards has never earned a Fight of the Night award. What better time than now to win his first in front of a rabid English crowd.
History tells us this outcome is unlikely — Muhammad has also never been part of a Fight of the Night — so I understand the trepidation that a large swath of fight fans felt when this was booked as the UFC 304 main event. Five rounds of Edwards vs. Muhammad. “Blahhhhhh,” they said, collectively. (I’m paraphrasing.)
Edwards will be boosted by his first title defense on home soil though, and Muhammad will fight like a guy who is never going to challenge for the title again if he loses. (Because he won’t!) That’s a recipe for an entertaining contest, because there won’t be much room for either fighter to play it safe, as they’re so often criticized for. It’s time to play to win, not to not lose.
Edwards takes a decision in a five-round thriller that has the crowd roaring.
Heck: This is a tremendous question because not enough people believe this is even an option, and I’m here to tell you, it absolutely is one.
Like Muhammad, this is Curtis Blaydes’ one and only shot to wear a UFC belt. If he loses to Tom Aspinall on Saturday, he becomes one of those barber shop type of topics where we look back on his career and ask ourselves, “Man, could he have won the title if he gotten his chance sooner?”
And if Blaydes does win? Then I really don’t know. Even Blaydes has to know that I have a better chance of fighting Jon Jones than he does. The best he can hope for as that Jones fights Stipe Miocic, wins, retires, and the UFC promotes Blaydes to undisputed champ.
What he should do is call out Alex Pereira, either way.
Meshew: If Blaydes wins? Jon Jones then retires as Heavyweight Champion for Life™.
Seriously, the UFC has no interest in Blaydes being heavyweight champion. His style is not the most captivating and he’s never been great on the mic (though he is improving). So if Blaydes wins, the FIRST thing that will happen is Dana White will go to the post-fight press conference and immediately go on an unprompted rant about how Jon Jones is the greatest fighter who has ever drawn breath.
Then White will quadruple down on the Stipe Miocic fight and everyone will be like, ‘Sure, we know Jon won’t fight Curtis, so whatever at this point.’ Then Dana will be forced to book Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov 2 for the interim heavyweight title and you might see him cry actual tears of anger. But rest assured that belt will remain interim. If Jones fights Miocic and wins and retires, White may simply never bother to elevate Blaydes to undisputed champion.
After all, he waited for six months for Khabib to come back and Khabib isn’t even the greatest fighter God ever conceived of. I figure Dana will be willing to berate media members about Jon’s greatness for at least two full years before finally giving up the ghost.
Lee: Jon Jones officially becomes the No. THREE best heavyweight in the world.
*smirk emoji*
OK, Jones jabs aside, Blaydes winning could legitimately be a grim scenario for the UFC. That’s not to take anything away from Blaydes, who has valiantly battled back from tough losses over and over again to finally get a shot at gold, but it’s never felt like the promotional machine is behind him despite him being an elite heavyweight and a fighter regularly trusted to headline cards.
It’s just that Blaydes has no hook, no chutzpah. That doesn’t mean he has no personality, only that he doesn’t have the kind of personality that Joe Blow MMA Fan is immediately intrigued by. Blaydes will keep the heavyweight division chugging along and maybe that’s enough, but he’ll also end up being unfairly blamed for the inevitable decline of the weight class’ star power once Jones and Miocic hang up the gloves following their matchup (even if Jones doesn’t retire immediately, that decision can’t be far off).
This is supposed to be a showcase moment for Aspinall and I doubt the UFC has a contingency plan if Blaydes spoils the party. Best possible scenario, it turns out Blaydes has put it all together for real and he spends the next couple of years stringing together a record-breaking run of at least four heavyweight title defenses to bring credibility — if not big box office — to his reign and stability to the division.
Love it or not, the Blaydes era could be about to begin.
Heck: The Bobby ... I’m sorry, King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett winner is the correct answer, but I’ll go with Molly McCann because she has the perfect matchup to do so.
No disrespect to Bruna Brasil, but she’s in this fight for a reason. When UFC matchmakers want to make sure a result has a high percentage chance of happening, they are as good as it gets in setting the proverbial table. McCann looked like a world-beater against Diana Belbita in her strawweight debut, and Brasil is coming off of a decision loss — one in which I thought she dropped all three rounds — to Loma Lookboonmee. Brasil is 1-2 in UFC with her lone octagon win coming against Shauna Bannon, who has some potential but certainly didn’t look UFC ready. Not to mention, Brasil can get got, and McCann has shown she can deliver a highlight-reel finish in front of a raucous U.K. crowd.
McCann has a great chance of being a top-three star of this card when the dust settles.
Meshew: Mike is correct about the correct answer, but I also don’t want to take that low-hanging fruit so I will go with Manel Kape.
There are very few people higher on Muhammad Mokaev than I am (though Mike may be one of them), but even I can admit that if he wins, no one will care. (Mokaev is right there in the running with Edwards for fighter with the biggest gap between skill and ability to be interesting.) But if Kape wins? Different story.
First off, the way Kape wins this fight is probably by doing something gnarly. Of his 19 career wins, 16 have come by finish and he’s fighting someone who is not especially adept in the striking realm. If “Starboy” goes Super Saiyan with a flying knee or something, it’s going to be dope.
Plus, Kape and Mokaev are very likely fighting for a flyweight title shot, and a rematch with Alexandre Pantoja in Brazil is a monster fight for Kape. We’re talking Brazil vs. Portugal, with Kape also being a perfect heel and foil for Pants. The No. 1 story coming out of UFC 304 is most likely going to be around the co-main event winner, but No. 2 could easily be Kape as the next man up for 125-pound gold.
Lee: With the low-hanging fruit still unpicked, I’m happy to wax poetic about Green vs. Pimblett.
This was the matchup to make after Green dominated Jim Miller at UFC 300 and everybody seemed to know it. Even Pimblett admitted that a matchup with the soon-to-be 50-fight veteran was in the cards, a logical next step for “The Baddy” after his three-round nod over fan favorite Tony Ferguson this past December. If Pimblett is ever to become someone resembling a contender, he has to grind out these tough matchups.
Not only does beating someone like Green give Pimblett some serious street cred, he’ll also end up with a long sought-after number next to his name. Green is currently No. 15 in UFC’s official lightweight rankings and Pimblett slides right into that slot with a win. Pimblett fans, this is your moment.
Or not. Because if Green sparks Pimblett or wins a clear-cut decision to hand him his first UFC defeat, it will dominate headlines for the next week or so. Depending on when Pimblett fights again, the fallout from the loss could linger even longer.
Green has always been one big moment away from a Jorge Masvidal-esque rise to fame — and maybe, like Masvidal, he kickstarts this late-career surge with a KO of a brash Scouser.
