Perhaps a deeper dive into the team’s construction could have predicted the outcome of the Chicago Cubs‘ first half of the season. Still, not many expected what we witnessed. The Cubs will enter play after the All-Star break four games below .500 and 8.5 back of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. Oh, and they’re in last place.
The Cubs were one of the favorites to win the National League Central division in what was predicted to be a down year for most of the division. Instead, the Brewers are shining brightly and remain surprising – even after manager Craig Counsell jumped ship to join the Cubs. They hold a 4.5-game lead over second-place St. Louis.
The starting pitching has been nothing short of fantastic for the Cubs. Even through injury, guys like Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad had no problem stepping up to carry the team through. And now that Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon are healthy, it’s full steam ahead.
However, a lack of offensive power kept the Cubs from scoring enough runs to support excellent starts from the rotation. Defense blunders and miscues allowed unearned runs to accumulate. Having no closer and unreliable arms put the team at the top of the list in blown saves and bullpen ERA.
That said, the Cubs went into the All-Star break, winning seven of their last ten games, including a sweep of the Orioles in Baltimore. Many on the north side of Chicago hope this is a sign of things coming for the second half. Fortunately, some analysis gives a favorable outlook for a potential comeback trail to be forged.
Brooksgate, via FanGraphs, posted a tweet showing each team’s strength of schedule based on the records of their remaining opponents. According to the numbers, the Cubs have the second-easiest schedule remaining in 2024. Only the San Francisco Giants have an easier path. Understandably, the Boston Red Sox have the most challenging path forward. They’ll have to navigate through both the Orioles and the Yankees.
Take this as you will, but the last time the Cubs looked forward to a “favorable schedule,” they were underwhelming against sub-500 teams. They lost many winnable games that helped teams who could have been buried fight back into contention in the National League. On April 26th, the Cubs were eight games over .500. On July 3rd, they clocked in nine games under.
In both Baltimore and St. Louis, prior to the All-Star break, the Cubs showed a glimpse of the team that was expected to be winning and contending regularly. Coming out of the break, the Cubs will have a six-game homestand. It will start with three games against the defending NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks. Following that, they’ll have three against the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
The time is now for the Cubs to flex the muscle we’ve been waiting to see all year.
