The Open is here, with Scottie Scheffler hoping to enjoy a taste of seven-up, while Rory McIlroy looks for a champagne finish to a season that has gone horribly flat with his US Open collapse.
With six wins to his credit already this year, it is no surprise to see Scheffler installed as a hot favourite at 11-2, while McIlroy is a best-priced 17-2 to earn redemption for his painful Pinehurst defeat.
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But there are good reasons to look beyond the top two players in the game, and not just because McIlroy has spurned chance after chance to end his ten-year wait for a fifth Major victory.
Scheffler has won two Masters titles and finished runner-up in both of the other American Majors – but has yet to prove he has what it takes to triumph over the links.
He has failed to improve on the promise of his eighth place finish in his Open debut three years ago, finishing outside the top twenty in both subsequent starts.
And with McIlroy blowing hot and cold with the putter at last week’s Scottish Open, it is hard to justify taking a short price on the Northern Irishman, even though he is likely to be there or thereabouts.
So once again the value lies elsewhere…
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Ludvig Aberg is third favourite at 14-1. But he admits he is fighting to hit it straight off the tee at the moment – not a good sign with the rough around knee high in places at Troon.
Add in the fact that he failed to close the deal after being recommended here at slightly longer odds for the Scottish Open, and the Swede needs to be swerved as well.
Bryson DeChambeau will be a popular choice at 16-1 after edging out McIlroy at the US Open. But one top ten finish in six Opens does not inspire confidence. So at the same odds, 2021 Collin Morikawa is the player who stands out.
Morikawa won his first two Major titles quicker than any other player in the history of the game, and he is not going to stop there.
He looked the likely winner for much of the final day at the Scottish Open, and a share of fourth was good preparation for this.
The tougher test will suit him more than most, and the same thing applies to Tommy Fleetwood, who also had his moments at the Renaissance Club last week.
Fleetwood’s recent form figures in the Open – 2-33-4-10 – show how comfortable he is in these conditions, and he should be in the shake-up again this time.
And England should have another leading contender in Tyrrell Hatton, who has really found his form on the LIV circuit.
Hothead Hatton romped to a six shot victory in Nashville, shooting an eye-catching 19 under for 54 holes.
And he was almost as impressive when finishing four under in a much tougher test at Valderrama last week, finishing just a shot outside the play-off that saw Sergio Garcia edge out Anirban Lahiri.
Hatton performed well to finish in the top 10 at the Masters and was right in the hunt for 54 holes of the US Open. He also produced his best Open result so far when he was fifth at Troon in 2016, and at 25-1 he is worth an each way interest.
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Sahith Theegala has been one of the breakout stars on the PGA Tour this year, and he impressed again when he finished in a share of fourth at the Scottish Open. At 50-1 he is another sound each way proposition.
Ben An did not live up to expectations at the Renaissance Club last week. But at 150-1, it might be worth a small stake to see if he can return to form here.
And if you want to back a player at even fancier odds, Adrian Meronk catches the eye at 250-1.
He has struggled to make an impact since switching to LIV, but he was a real force in Europe last year and is capable of improving on his top 20 finish at Hoylake last year.
And the ultra-consistent Eric Cole, an old favourite of this column looks over-priced at 400-1, despite not having a links pedigree.
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