The annual McDonald’s All-American Game brings together high school seniors for a prestigious basketball game that showcases the best of the best at the prep level.
Future NBA stars like Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant in the 1990s, LeBron James and Dwight Howard in the 2000s, Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards in the 2010s and Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren in the 2020s have participated in this event, coming together to show the nation the future of the league.
But for every legend-to-be, there’s a participant who doesn’t make an impact in the NBA. Perhaps they flame out in college or get into the league but have stat sheets riddled with DNPs.
That begs the question: How good is the McDonald’s All-American Game at predicting the future success of these athletes?
To find the answer, USA TODAY High School Sports analyzed every boys roster from 2000-2020 and created a points system based on their impact in the league, ranging from no impact to Hall of Fame-level. The points range from:
The result: As challenging as recruiting and prospect analysis is, the game is quite good at picking future NBA talent.
The scoring system deemed the 24-person roster a success if it totaled at least 24 points, which would mean, on average, each player had some NBA impact.
Over those 21 years, 13 teams reached 24 points, and one other had 23 points in this subjective exercise. The leading year was 2004, which had 41 points and kicked off a five-year run that averaged more than 34 points per year. Prospect analysis suffered from 2009-15, with only two years reaching the requisite 24 points (and two failing to break 15 points), but since 2016, it’s been a great indicator of future success. In 2018, 18 of the 24 players had some NBA impact, finishing with a score of 40 points.
Of the 505 players (the 2013 roster had 25 players), 254 received a grade of at least one, while 251 received a zero—that’s above 50%, and while it may not sound all that impressive, a scout who can pick an NBA-impact player one of every two times will be employed for life. Of those who received a score, 165 scored two or better, indicating that about one-third of the players had a long and productive career in the league.
With the 2024 NBA draft beginning Wednesday night, teams facing uncertainty may want to look at recent McDonald’s games to help fill out their big board.
The players in the draft who competed in the high school all-star game were:
Eight of those players (all in 2023) are projected as potential lottery picks. Players like Edwards and Ware could go later in the first round, while Ingram, Bona and James have been mainly graded as second-round picks.
The McDonald’s game doesn’t ensure a star — only 35 players received a grade of 4 to 5 points, and that was with some projection for budding stars like Tyrese Maxey and Scottie Barnes, both of whom had 4 — but there are very few top-talent stars in the league. A team can happily get a rotation player outside the top handful of draft spots. Historically, picking a McDonald’s player gives a team a 50% chance of doing so.
