Can Paul Craig pull off another upset in hostile territory against the surging Caio Borralho tonight at UFC 301? It's not out of the question.
Caio Borralho and Paul Craig meet Saturday on the UFC 301 main card at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
Last event: 3-3
UFC main cards, 2024: 31-32-2
Borralho hasn’t lost since his second pro fight nearly nine years ago … Borralho needed two Dana White’s Contender Series wins to get to the UFC, but is 5-0 in the promotion … Craig made the move to middleweight in 2023 after years at light heavyweight … Craig won his 185-pound debut with a bonus-winning TKO of Andre Muniz, but lost his follow-up to Brendan Allen for his third setback in four fights.
Paul Craig
Despite Joe Silva mastering main card formats many years ago by booking men’s lightweight or featherweight as the openers, the current crop of UFC matchmakers continue to force-feed us middleweights in these prime positions.
And even though we have fantastic fights like Joanderson Briot and Jack Shore just below this, the powers that be decided to kick off the paid portion of the card with a potential middleweight squash match between Paul Craig and Caio Barralho.
Although I’m a big fan of Craig and give him more of a shot than the betting public is, I have a hard time seeing a concrete way for the Scotsman to win outside of lightning striking for another opportunistic submission.
Borralho, on the other hand, can be a frustrating fighter given his propensity to counter and peck away from the outside.
Paul Craig, who fights Caio Borralho at #UFC301, is 4-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (W: Ankalaev, Nzechukwu, Hill, Muniz; L: Rountree)
Craig is definitely not beyond being tagged by SP kicks and counters, but he has shown steady improvements to his striking. #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/orXz3Az7S8
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May 3, 2024
Craig has been showing striking improvements that can help keep him afloat, but I’m not sure he can offer up enough to stay ahead of his Brazilian counterpart on the scorecards.
The pick is Borralho via a frustrating unanimous decision.
Nov 4, 2023; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Caio Borralho (red gloves) reacts after defeating Abus Magomedov (not pictured) during UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason da Silva-USA TODAY Sports
Borralho is a huge -670 favorite, according to FanDuel. He hasn’t been that big of a favorite since his DWCS fight against Jesse Murray in 2021, when he was -1400. Conversely, the last time Craig was this big of an underdog, he upset Magomed Ankalaev with a bonus-winning submission in 2018 in London.
As the main card opener, Caio Borralho and Paul Craig are expected to make their walk to the octagon around 10:15 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 301.
For more detailed analysis from Dan Tom, check out his weekly show, “The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.”
