Don't let the point spread fool you, these three underdogs are poised to pull off upsets in their Bowl games.
Opt-outs, players entering the transfer portal as well as coaching replacements often wreck havoc on the odds and betting lines for college football bowl games. No matter the factors, bettors should not shy away from investing in the ‘tail-end’ of line movements.
Three teams fit each of the angles highlighted above and are worthy of a ‘Double-Pop’ wager. In this type of bet, we will be grabbing an underdog who not only offers value with the spread but also back the moneyline returning plus-odds in our favor. In other words, we are betting on the underdogs to not only cover the spread, but win the game outright!
After a slow start to the season, my respected money information from Vegas has posted a 11-6-3 against the spread (ATS) record (64.7%) run over the last 20 plays.
Let’s dive in!
Spread: Kansas +3 (-118) | Arkansas -3 (-110)
Moneyline: Kansas +115 | Arkansas -150
Over/Under: 68.5
Records: KU 6-6 SU; 7-4-1 ATS / ARK 6-6 SU; 6-6 ATS
Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
Date / TV / Time: Dec. 28 | 5:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Kansas’ dual-threat quarterback Jalon Daniels, who led the Jayhawks to a 5-0 start, was forced to miss four straight games due a shoulder injury. However, he was able to return for the team’s final two games of the regular season against Texas and Kansas State. Despite losing both those games against ranked opponents, the playing time served to help him nail down the timing with his weapons in the passing game ahead of the Liberty Bowl.
Arkansas will be without their defensive coordinator Barry Odom - after he was hired to become the head coach at UNLV. The Razorbacks will not have three leaders on both sides of the ball: star linebacker Drew Sanders, top offensive lineman Ricky Stromberg (center), as well as talented wideout Jadon Haselwood - who led the club with 59 catches. The talented trio have opted out of the game as they commence preparations for the NFL Draft.
The opening number of +5 has vanished taking along with it the original healthy moneyline of +175. However, the value is still there fading a short-handed Razorbacks squad who only covered against the spread four times over the final 10 games (4-6 ATS) of the regular season.
Spread: Kansas +3
Moneyline: Kansas +115
Spread: Notre Dame -2.5 (-118) | South Carolina +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Notre Dame -143 | South Carolina +110
Total: 51.5
Records: ND 8-4 SU; 6-6 ATS / SOC 8-4 SU; 7-5 ATS
Location: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
Date / TV/ Time: Dec. 30 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Notre Dame star tight end Michael Mayer will miss the Gator Bowl after declaring for the NFL draft. Mayer’s absence is a major loss as he led the club in receptions (69), receiving yards (809) and touchdowns (9). In addition, quarterback Drew Pyne, who piloted Marcus Freeman’s offense for the final 10 games, will also not play after entering the transfer portal.
Quarterback Tyler Buchner, who started the first two games of the season, is expected to return under center after missing the majority of the season with a shoulder injury.
South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler, who led the team to a solid 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) down the stretch, should be the best player on the field in the Gator Bowl.
The Gamecocks are “live” and are getting a ton of support at the betting windows. The opening number of +5.5 is long gone as is the original moneyline of +185. However, the value is still there fading a Fighting Irish squad that will be missing several key offensive weapons.
Spread: South Carolina +3 (-120 - Buy Hook)
Moneyline: South Carolina +110
Spread: Alabama -6.5 (-118) | Kansas State +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Alabama -250 | Kansas State +188
Total: 56
Records: ALA 10-2 SU; 6-6 ATS / KSU 10-3 SU; 9-3-1 ATS
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Date / TV / Time: Dec. 31 | 12 p.m. ET | ESPN
As is often the case, finding teams who are motivated to play is vital prior to placing wagers on bowl games. Alabama, a perennial staple in the College Football Playoffs, will instead be playing in the Sugar Bowl.
Bryce Young as well as star linebacker Will Anderson Jr. shocked many around the country when they opted to dress for their final game as members of the Tide prior to entering the NFL Draft. Both elite talents, who are projected to go in the top five of April’s draft, are taking a major risk by playing in a game where they will not have much to gain. However, both Young and Anderson realize that their teammates need them against a strong Kansas State team.
Kansas State enters the Sugar Bowl fresh off upsetting No. 3 TCU in the Big 12 Championship. The Wildcats, who finished 4-0 SU and ATS down the stretch, will be pumped to knock off one of the best programs in college football.
The Wildcats have both ‘Mo’s” in their favor here: motivation and momentum. The opening number of +6 is long gone as is the original moneyline of +195. However, the value is still there fading Nick Saban’s squad who only covered against the spread twice over their final seven games (2-5 ATS).
Spread: Kansas State +3
Moneyline: +135
