A lot of NFL games are going to played in some awful conditions in Week 16.
Eight different games are expected to have below-freezing temperatures at kickoff, including a Week 16 low of nine degrees for the Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears game. The “feels like” temperature dips into the negatives for a few of the games. And there’s always the likelihood of temperature drops over the course of each game.
There’s even a chance of snow for the New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns game.
As a result of the frigid temperatures, bettors are seeing some of the lowest lines they’ve ever seen for point totals and player props.
Browns-Saints total 31.5.
Lowest total since 2008.
Since 2003, in games with totals of less than 32 points the UNDER is 10-3-1 per @Bet_Labs.
— John Ewing (@johnewing) December 20, 2022
The Browns-Saints total dipped as low as 31.5 at BetMGM and was 32.5 as of Thursday afternoon at many sportsbooks, including Tipico.
But even as the lowest total in more than a decade, bettors were still hitting the under at Caesars.
The Sunday opener for Saints-Browns total was 35.5 at @CaesarsSports.
Was bet to 32.5 by Monday afternoon, hasn't gone above it since.
While total is 32.5 or lower: Under 50.8% tix/62.9% $
When total was 33 or higher: Under 68.2% tix/99.4% $
Overall: Under 53.8% tix/86.9% $
— Max Meyer (@TheMaxMeyer) December 21, 2022
Seven other games in Week 16 also have a total of less than 40 points. The next lowest is 35.5 for the Texans at Titans and Falcons at Ravens games. Those teams are also expected to be playing in freezing weather, but quarterback play is another factor in the low totals. The Titans are likely to start rookie Malik Willis and the Falcons are starting rookie Desmond Ridder.
Ridder’s passing prop opened as the lowest ever for a starting quarterback before being passed by Justin Fields.
Justin Fields line just opened lower than Ridder's.
Fields' passing prop just opened at 137.5. https://t.co/XbwhZfRO8y
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) December 22, 2022
Willis’ prop isn’t available yet, but that one may open even lower than Fields and Ridder’s. Willis failed to eclipse 100 yards in two starts long before temperatures started dropping below freezing.
