The Broncos are small road favorites against the Rams on Christmas in a battle of eliminated teams.
Entering Week 16, the Broncos and Rams rank third and fourth in the 2023 NFL Draft order. Unfortunately, both teams traded away their selections to the Seahawks and Lions, respectively. Los Angeles can blame part of its demise on injuries suffered by Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald. Denver continues to have the NFL’s worst offense (15.6 points per game). The Russell Wilson trade hasn’t worked out as planned, and the Broncos are on the hook for another $104 million in guaranteed money over the next three seasons.
Los Angeles comes into this week with a win and a loss since claiming Baker Mayfield off waivers from the Panthers. The Rams are 2-9 since Week 3 thanks to a dismal offense that’s scored 17 points or fewer in nine contests. Cam Akers ran the ball better over the last three weeks (41/167/3 with five catches for 36 yards), but he is still gaining only 3.5 yards per rush on the season. In addition, their defense allowed 24 points or more six times over their previous eight games.
The Broncos’ defense has kept them in many games this season by allowing less than 20 points in 10 matchups. They have one of the league’s best cornerbacks in Patrick Surtain, helping Denver rank highly in pass coverage. At times, they can get roughed up on the ground, showcased by their games versus the Raiders (38/212/2), Jets (24/155/1), Jaguars (32/191/1) and Panthers (46/185/1).
Denver is 2-9 since starting the year with a 2-1 record and the Broncos scored more than 17 points in only five contests.
Moneyline: Broncos (-138) | Rams (+115)
Spread: DEN -2.5 (-110) | LAR +2.5 (-110)
Total: 36.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Game Info: Dec. 25, 2022 | 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS
Broncos Straight-Up Record: 4-10
Broncos Against The Spread Record: 6-8
Rams Straight-Up Record: 4-10
Rams Against The Spread Record: 5-8-1
Bet on Broncos-Rams at SI Sportsbook
Ultimately, this matchup pairs up of the worst NFL coaches (Nathaniel Hackett) vs. Sean McVay (2021 Super Bowl winner). The return of Donald (ankle) would significantly help the Rams’ defense, but they have no reason to push him back to the field with nothing on the line over the final three games.
Wilson would love to finish the season on a high note, while also being a significant reason why Denver underachieved offensively in 2022. I lean toward the Rams due to a better coaching staff, and the game is at home.
• The under was the winning play in 11 of the first 12 Broncos’ games. The past two games have landed on the over side of the total betting line.
• Denver has a three-game winning streak versus the spread. However, it is 1-3 in games this season when favored by three points or fewer.
• The Rams’ game total has gone under in nine of their 14 contests, including three straight games with an over/under below 40.
• Los Angeles is 0-3-1 when receiving between one and three points this year. However, it has covered the spread in their last two home games (+7 and +6)
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