The Rams paid BIG to upgrade from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford. Was it worth it?
For being one of the biggest blockbuster trades in the NFL history, the swap that sent Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams and Jared Goff to the Detroit Lions hinged on one simple, sort of boring idea:
Stafford is a slightly better-than-average NFL quarterback, while Goff is a slightly below-average NFL QB. And with coach Sean McVay calling the plays, that’s all the upgrade the Rams needed.
Matthew Stafford, who turns 33 next Sunday, is a veteran who has produced steadily throughout his career, often in the obscurity caused by Detroit’s relentless mediocrity (he’s played in three playoff games in 12 years).
Goff, meanwhile, is 26-years-old and in the midst of the extension on his rookie deal after being the No. 1 pick in 2016. He’s been to a Super Bowl, but most of his success has been attributed to playing for McVay, whose scheme simplifies the process for quarterbacks and lets them throw to open receivers.
Stafford and Goff are similar players: they have good arm strength, decent accuracy and, while not mobile, they move well enough in the pocket. It’s just that Stafford has been slightly better, in what most would agree was a less-impressive offense.
The stats from the regular season show as much. Goff’s DVOA was 22nd (-1.1%) while Stafford’s was 14th (7.7%), and Goff’s DYAR was 20th (385) and Stafford’s was 14th (684).
Stafford is the better player, but is the margin between the two really worth first-round picks (2022, 2023) and a third-rounder (2021)? That’s what we’ll be waiting to find out.
That statistical gap is the first layer that sets the table for this complicated trade, which will put an enormous amount of pressure on McVay to make it worth the Rams’ while. Let’s break it down point-by-point as we start to consider how this deal will ultimately be evaluated.
