We’re doing it again. We’re having same old “game manager” debate all over again. The name has changed numerous times but the talking points have not. A decade ago we asked if Russell Wilson was more than a game manager (he is), then we asked the same question about Kirk Cousins (we’re still fighting over this one), and then, last year, it was Jared Goff’s turn (it’s looking like a no).
With Super Bowl 54 just a few sleeps away, the spotlight has moved to Jimmy Garoppolo, who had only eight more pass attempts than you or I did during the NFC Championship Game, which re-sparked the “Is Jimmy G just a game manager?” debate.
I think anyone who’s watched him play over the course of the 2019 NFL season can answer that question. Jimmy G is not a game manager. Get your pejorative labels for quarterbacks straight. He’s actually a “system quarterback.”
There’s a difference.
This is where the very smart football knower chimes in with “ALL QUARTERBACKS RUN A SYSTEM.” Which is true but misses the point of the label. Sure, Tom Brady and Drew Brees have pretty much been in the same system for most of their careers but it’s pretty clear that both of those guys elevate(d) the systems they’re in. The same goes for a guy like Lamar Jackson, whose unmatched ability makes the Ravens’ unique offensive system viable (and not the other way around).
Those guys aren’t “system quarterbacks” in the way we usually mean it. The term is reserved for quarterbacks who are propped up by the offensive system they play in. The connotation is that those guys are replaceable, with some guys more replaceable than others. That’s when you start bringing up names like Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff and, of course, Jimmy Garoppolo.
What makes Garoppolo such an interesting case is that he doesn’t look like the prototypical system quarterback. And, no, I’m not just referring to how handsome he is — he is a very handsome man — but even on the field, he doesn’t look the part. Because, whew, that man can throw a football. His release is Marino quick. His footwork can look strange at times but, as SB Nation’s Seth Galina tells us, it doesn’t matter thanks to something called “rotary power” — I think it has something to do with his hips — and his mechanics are basically perfect.
Garoppolo doesn’t throw the ball a whole lot, but when he does it’s usually pretty and the ball gets to where it needs to go. Arm talent isn’t something we usually associate with a marginal franchise quarterback but it’s clear that Garoppolo has it.
I’m shamelessly stealing this analogy from ESPN’s Mina Kimes, but Garoppolo is a lot like John Hamm’s character on 30 Rock, who is so handsome that he was allowed to skate through life while being protected from any deserved scrutiny thanks to the “handsome bubble.”
Now, I’m sure Garoppolo is a smart dude off the field. This has nothing to do with him as a person or even his general hotness. But on the field, he does need a little extra help when it comes to the mental aspect of playing the quarterback position. And Kyle Shanahan’s offense provides him with that help. The play designs do the “thinking” for Garoppolo, and he just has to make a quick either/or decision and throw a pretty ball, which, as we’ve covered, he’s perfectly capable of doing.
In turn, Garoppolo’s physical ability allows Shanahan to call plays he couldn’t call for, say, Brian Hoyer or Nick Mullens. Let’s take a look at an example of a play call that made things easy for Garoppolo mentally but asked a lot of those purty mechanics of his.
This starts out looking a lot like the play-action fakes we’re used to seeing from a Shanahan-coached offense. You have a play fake, a receiver running to the flat and another receiver running an over route. But Emmanuel Sanders cuts that over route off and stops in the middle of the field…
Here’s why: One of the more popular ways to defend the over route off of play-action is to have the linebacker use a “ROBOT” technique, where he flips his hips and finds the crosser.
Shanahan knows that linebacker is taught to open his hips up to his right, so having Sanders cut his route off early works against the defender’s momentum and creates a throwing window.
But it is a narrow window and Garoppolo deserves credit for making a great throw across his body. He just didn’t have to do much thinking during the play thanks to the next-level play design.
These little tweaks are what make Shanahan’s offense so good. He gives the defense a different picture every time but for Garoppolo, it’s the same read over and over again. Here are the 49ers running the same concept repeatedly in the same game, just from a different look each time…
None of this proves that Garoppolo is a system quarterback. I don’t know if it’s possible to prove something like that without hundreds of clips, which we don’t have the space for here. That’s when we can turn to the numbers.
Before we dive into those numbers, I have a question: When you think of an offense that is designed to shelter the quarterback, what kind of plays come to mind?
Here’s my list:
A whole lotta play-action, especially when throwing downfield. Short passes around the line of scrimmage that lead to more yards after the catch. Play designs that get the quarterback out of the pocket and provide him with a clearer view of the field. More passes to tight ends, slot receivers and running backs over the middle and fewer throws to receivers outside of the numbers.Welp, I pretty much just described the 49ers offense in 2019. Some stats, via Sports Info Solutions…
No quarterback threw play-action passes at a higher rate (31 percent of his passes), while about 66% of Garoppolo’s total Expected Points Added this season came on play-action attempts. Among quarterbacks who logged at least 10 starts, Garoppolo finished last in non-play-action attempts that traveled further than five yards downfield. 85% of his EPA on completed passes came AFTER the catch. Only three starting quarterbacks — Kyler Murray, Kyle Allen and Jacoby Brissett — had a higher percentage. Nearly 40% of Garoppolo’s passing EPA came on designed rollouts. Only Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff had higher percentages. On 5- and 7-step drops without play-action, Garoppolo averaged -0.52 EPA per attempt, which ranked dead last among full-time starters. His success rate of 31.5% also ranked at the bottom of the league. Garoppolo ranked 25th in the league with 94 attempts to receivers lined up out wide and produced a total EPA of -11.8. Among starters, only Mitchell Trubisky produced a lower number but the Bears QB did have a higher success rate. Meanwhile, Garoppolo led the league in EPA on throws to players lined up in the slot, at tight end or in the backfield.And if you’re thinking that maybe this is all a product of Shanahan’s offense, just take a look at Nick Mullens’ splits from a season ago compared to Garoppolo’s from 2019…
So Shanahan put Mullens in position to make more throws without play-action — and significantly more that went more than five yards in the air — while giving him more looks that resulted in throws to wide receivers.
With Garoppolo under center, the offense changes, and plays to his strengths. He separates himself in the play-action game and even more so on designed roll-outs. He also has an edge on quick drops (0-3 steps). All of these plays require less thinking but more accuracy and arm strength, which, obviously, Garoppolo has and Mullens, an undrafted free agent, does not.
Now the important question: Why does this matter and why does it matter right now? Shanahan will be calling the plays on Sunday and providing Garoppolo with the schematic shelter it appears he requires, so … who cares?
Well, here’s the problem: As I covered in my Super Bowl 54 stats preview, the Chiefs defense has been quite good at defending all of the things that Garoppolo does well. For instance, Kansas City allowed 0.04 EPA per play-action attempt while the league-average was around 0.20. The Chiefs also ranked fifth in success rate allowed against passes to tight ends and slot receivers.
If Patrick Mahomes is his usual self and the Chiefs put up points, Garoppolo may be forced to throw more often. And the concepts he typically relies on may not be as productive as they typically are, which means Garoppolo will have to go outside of his comfort zone to keep the 49ers in the game. If he wants to prove he isn’t the system quarterback I’m accusing him of being, that will be his chance to prove it.
