Republican Larry Hogan and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will meet Thursday in the first and only debate in the closely watched U.S. Senate race in Maryland.
It will be hosted by Maryland Public Television and will be moderated by Chuck Todd, chief political analyst for NBC News.
Hogan and Alsobrooks are running to succeed Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin, who is retiring.
“Larry Hogan, in this debate, is in a bit of a difficult position,” said Ian Anson, a political science professor at the University of Maryland Baltimore County.
Anson noted that Hogan has been trailing in recent polling.
“His goal is probably going to be to try to distance himself from the national political context, and especially distance himself from Trump, as much as possible,” Anson said. “It’s really those moderate voters and even some of those moderate Democrats that he needs to win over.”
No Republican has held a Maryland seat in the U.S. Senate in nearly 40 years. If Hogan were to win, Republicans would almost certainly claim the majority in the U.S. Senate, where Democrats currently hold a 51-49 edge.
Anson said Hogan’s strategy might involve focusing on his record in the Old Line State, especially “economic perceptions in Maryland and how his role in the Senate might help folks struggling with high prices.”
That may be a challenge for Hogan in deep-blue Maryland, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 2-to-1 ratio.
“The broader problem here is that the national political context is somewhat inescapable, and especially something that Alsobrooks is going to be keen to talk about,” Anson said. “Hogan’s got to pull at least some Democrats over to his side in order to be successful.”
With momentum seemingly on the side of Alsobrooks, Anson said she will likely try to stay on the positive side, avoiding strong criticism of Hogan.
“One of the interesting things about being in the lead in a debate like this is that being negative is probably not a good strategy,” Anson said. “Trying to stay away from that oppositional kind of politics, and just talking about her own record and her own ideas for the future, is probably the best idea.”
Alsobrooks may find herself playing a bit of defense related to the recent story about her improperly taking advantage of tax breaks she did not qualify for, including one meant for low-income senior citizens. It allowed Alsobrooks to save thousands of dollars in taxes on two properties she owned in D.C. and Prince George’s County.
“I’m very interested to see whether Hogan brings that up as a debate topic and whether he goes after Alsobrooks on that,” Anson said. “It depends, I think, on just how desperate the Hogan campaign is.”
Alsobrooks has said she was unaware of the issue and plans to pay back the taxes she owes.
