Eagles 11-6
You’ve heard it every year for nearly two full decades: NFC East champions don’t repeat.
That’s bad news for Dallas and an opportunity for everyone else, namely Philadelphia.
The NFL Draft’s historic run of offense to open the first round allowed the Eagles to shore up its weakest position by landing perhaps the top corner in the draft, Quinyon Mitchell, in the first round, and a draft-day trade with Washington landed them Cooper DeJean in the second round.
The addition of Saquon Barkley makes the Eagles’ skill positions players among the league’s most talented but Philadelphia is trying to rebound from last year’s collapse from 10-1 conference leaders to wild-card losers, but there’s speculation the wounds that caused the collapse haven’t healed yet.
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore may or may not be an improvement over Brian Johnson, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s reasons for migrating to Philly sound more like a bridge to retirement than to another Super Bowl and without locker room stalwarts like Jason Kelce, this team could look more like the one that steadily regressed to end the season with a whimper.
As is usually the case, the truth lies somewhere in the middle — and Philly will win just enough to return to the top of the division.
Commanders 10-7
Whether rebuilding or recalibrating, the Washington Commanders are a new and improved team.
Only 57% of the roster returns from last year’s 4-13 disaster, the lowest percentage of returning players in the league. The additions of Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and rookie Mike Sainristil (pegged by Nick Saban as “pound for pound the best player in the 2024 draft) should give the unit instant credibility and improvement to a defense that ranked last in points (30.5), touchdown passes (39), passing yards allowed (262.2) and opponent quarterback rating (105.7) last season. If nothing else, head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. will put a stop to that madness.
But the 2024 season in Washington starts and ends with the development of Jayden Daniels.
In addition to being the eighth different Week 1 starting quarterback in as many seasons, Daniels is pegged by many to be the next big NFL star — perhaps outshining D.C.-area native and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
The Commanders will need him to live up to that hype. The trade of Jahan Dotson leaves the No. 2 wide receiver role in question and with little excitement beyond Terry McLaurin. The offensive line should be improved with center Tyler Biadasz (the best of the collection of former Cowboys to a degree we’ve not seen in Washington since the days of Norv Turner).
In addition to the good vibes in Ashburn, here’s a reason to believe in a quick Commanders turnaround: Washington is the least-traveled team in the NFL this season (10,550 miles), so the schedule could provide more breaks than challenges.
That said, the big wild card is the kicking situation. After the ill-fated Brandon McManus signing, Cade York is the third different kicker to try and nail down the gig. If he settles that position well, the Commanders can be strong in close games. If they go through a carousel of kickers like the infamous 2000 team, 7-10 would feel generous.
It just feels like one of those years where the rest of the NFC East falls down and Washington climbs over them to win the division. Given the 20-year run without a repeat champion, it’s a very distinct possibility.
Cowboys 8-9
As good as the vibes are in Washington, the feeling is “off” in Dallas.
The contract standoff with CeeDee Lamb was addressed but Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons remain in quasi-limbo — all in a lame-duck season for coach Mike McCarthy, who has yet to lead the Cowboys past the divisional round of the playoffs after three straight 12-5 seasons.
After Dan Quinn’s departure to Washington, Dallas went back to the future with Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator in a move that feels a lot like the Commanders’ addition of Eric Bieniemy last season: a guy who would be a logical in-season replacement should the lame-duck head coach flame out spectacularly.
Oh, did I mention the running back room is headlined by Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook? That’s a Pro Bowl depth chart if this is still 2019. In 2024, it’s organizational malpractice for an overhyped team that misses the playoffs.
Giants 6-11
The 100th season of New York Giants football will be as ugly as these throwback uniforms.
These Giants throwbacks make Daniel Jones look like the quarterback in a 1960s Disney movie called “The Spectre at Wideout” where his leading receiver is a ghost. pic.twitter.com/L9UPUqNSJT
— Mike Beauvais (@MikeBeauvais) May 16, 2024
Big Blue made some big moves to shore up their defense, most notably trading for Brian Burns to bolster their pass rush. But Daniel Jones isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback, and while sixth overall pick Malik Nabers should be a fine player.
The Giants will regret passing on a QB in this year’s draft.
Lions 12-5
For the first time in 30 years, the D is a defending division champion. Dan Campbell gave the greatest answer ever to the age-old question “Super Bowl or bust,” and the Lions look poised to keep the motor running to the Big Easy for their first trip to the Super Bowl.
Bears 11-6
To say the bar is low in Chicago is an understatement. The Bears have never had a season with a 4,000-yard passer. The franchise’s career receiving record is a paltry 5,059 yards. So Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze were drafted in the top 10 to change that.
I don’t see Shane Waldron’s offense putting up record-breaking numbers but it will be a much-improved unit that helps the Bears hold their own in a competitive division. Though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chicago miss the playoffs for the 15th time in 18 seasons, I expect them to grab a wild-card spot in the NFC.
Packers 11-6
From Week 11 of last season, Jordan Love had a 21-to-one TD-to-interception ratio and a league-best 79 QBR — all while Green Bay went 7-2 to advance to the divisional round of the playoffs and within a score of beating the 49ers in San Francisco. I expect the defense to have a learning curve under new coordinator Jeff Hafley but if Love is the real deal, this is a lowball prediction.
Vikings 6-11
Few have had a worse summer than the Minnesota Vikings.
Vikings:
-Rookie CB dies
-Starting WR gets a DUI
-Starting CB tears ACL first day of practice
-Other starting CB gets hurt second day of practice
-First round rookie QB tears meniscusThis is just the last five weeks …
— Mateo (@MJNDesigner) August 13, 2024
Not to mention tight end T.J. Hockenson is out the first four games to recover from last year’s ACL tear. This is too good a division for the likes of Sam Darnold to lead the Vikings to the playoffs so expect a down year in Minnesota.
Falcons 12-5
The biggest story coming out of the 2024 NFL Draft was the inexplicable decision to draft Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall weeks after spending nine figures on Kirk Cousins.
But that won’t matter in 2024.
Cousins, assuming the 36-year-old has fully healed from the Achilles tear that ended his 2023 season, will take advantage of one of the league’s most versatile and explosive units at the skill positions, while the late veteran additions on defense (Justin Simmons and Matt Judon) will help lead Raheem Morris to a great start to his second stint in Atlanta.
Bucs 8-9
Behind an improved, action figure-like Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles’ defense, Tampa will hover around .500 but just miss out on the playoffs.
Panthers 3-14
Bryce Young is coming off the worst season by a rookie quarterback this millennium and I’m not sure new coach Dave Canales can fix it in just one season — not with the lack of weapons on offense.
And definitely not with David Tepper, the worst owner in the league now that Dan Snyder is gone, presiding over all of it. This is another lost season in Carolina.
Saints 2-15
Is there a more uninspiring coach in the NFL than Dennis Allen? The Saints finished outside of the playoffs despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2023, and there should have been a reset — especially with a Super Bowl coming to town. New Orleans will regret delaying the inevitable.
49ers 11-6
Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk ended their contract disputes as San Francisco would return all 11 offensive starters from a group that finished first in offensive points per game (28.4), offensive efficiency (76.02) and offensive expected points added (148.06) and second in yards per game (398.4) in 2023.
The Niners have a league-worst -21 rest days but San Fran overcame the worst rest differential in 2023, advancing to the Super Bowl following a 12-5 regular season. They could do it again — but I expect some new blood to play in New Orleans.
Rams 9-8
Fittingly, Jared Verse was their first first-round selection since Aaron Donald — and he’ll be part of the rotation that will help fill the void left by the future Hall of Famer’s retirement.
The tread on 36-year-old Matthew Stafford’s tires is balding but he’s got enough to keep the Los Angeles in wild card contention.
Seahawks 8-9
Seattle goes from the oldest coach in the NFL to the youngest coach, completely moving on from the Pete Carroll era to enthusiastically add 36-year-old Mike Macdonald — the so-called “Sean McVay of defense.”
I expect glimpses of hope and playoff contention that won’t yet come to fruition.
Cardinals 4-13
Marvin Harrison Jr. will fast learn Kyler Murray’s not nearly as good as the guy Marvin Harrison Sr. had in Indianapolis.
