Donald Trump’s foreign policy was, during his first term, not only successful; it was the most successful foreign policy of any president since Ronald Reagan. Yet thanks to their animus for Trump personally, pseudo-experts on foreign policy have refused to give Trump credit for his obvious wins: a quiescent Russia, a contained Iran, Middle Eastern peace accords between Israel and several of its Arab neighbors, an increasingly isolated China and burgeoning liberty movements in South America. Instead, these supposed geniuses suggest that Trump’s foreign policy is haphazard, dangerous, unhinged; they long for the purported calm of Democratic foreign policy, based on specious nostrums about democracy, lack of enforcement mechanisms and endless negotiations that result in more conflict.
In reality, Trump’s foreign policy has always been straightforward and effective. That’s become utterly clear thanks to his foreign policy picks for his second term: Pete Hegseth for defense secretary; Marco Rubio for secretary of state; Mike Waltz for national security adviser; John Ratcliffe for CIA director; Mike Huckabee for ambassador to Israel, among others. Each of these foreign-policy picks shares a particular vision of America in the world; they reflect a Trump Doctrine.
That doctrine is simple. As Trump himself expressed it to me on my show some two weeks before the election, “Our policy is very simple: peace through strength. We had no wars – and I’m not an isolationist – I helped a lot of countries. I kept countries out of war.” This policy can be expressed in a few key propositions.
First, America’s interests are paramount. America first does not mean that America ignores the rest of the world; it means that the interests of American citizens ought to be the chief concern of the American government. This ought to be a truism. Those interests include everything from the freedom of the seas, which guarantees America’s economic supremacy, to the strength of American allies in contentious regions, sufficient to counter external threat without direct American intervention.
Second, America’s interests must be carefully calibrated to our investment in them. If we have only a weak interest in democracy in a far-flung land, we ought not pretend that Wilsonian bromides suffice as a rationale for heavy investment. All resources are scarce resources – none scarcer or more precious than the blood and treasure of the American military. Self-deception about the ease of war is dangerous. If we’re going to draw a red line, it ought to be a red line. As Joe Biden learned, saying “no” is no substitute for actual foreign policy.
Third, all measures and means necessary to achieve America’s interests are on the table. Such measures and means range from crushing the economic wherewithal of America’s enemies to credibly threatening military force when necessary. The ancient Latin adage “si vis pacem, para bellum” – if you want peace, prepare for war – is a key principle for the Trump Doctrine. What’s more, war is ugly and cannot be made antiseptic. That means that America’s might, when unleashed, must be calibrated toward victory rather than hamstrung by niceties and pieties. The most humane war – if any war is to be fought – is the shortest and most victorious. In short, the Trump Doctrine says: f–- around, find out.
Fourth, all of this ought to be publicly proclaimed. If our enemies know our principles, they will avoid the fight. War occurs when one side retains the hope of victory – either through sheer capacity or through the increasing weakness of will of the other side. America must broadcast both our capacity and our will. Doing so leaves no room for the errors that end in war.
Trump has followed these principles to the letter across both of his administrations. And what has followed has been the most peaceful administration in modern American history. The Trump Doctrine will continue to bring increasing peace so long as it is implemented. And by all indicators, President Trump is determined to do so over the next four years.
