There’s been no shortage of ink spilled over the ascendance of populism in the current U.S. political debate, particularly among conservatives. Strains of populism have long coursed through the Republican Party, animating long-running debates on issues ranging from trade to immigration. Today, well-funded and organized efforts are trying to push conservatives toward a more populist economic policy, abandoning the free market, low-tax, growth-focused economics that has dominated Republican politics for the last several decades.
These populist advocates have claimed early success in pushing the party to embrace a new approach on economics, including a larger role for government to shape the economy, and rejecting tax cuts as a way to drive growth.
Yet in assessing this emerging dynamic, a key question quickly emerges: Does this populist energy reflect a shift in thinking among Republicans generally? Or is this trend overstated, egged on by a news media that often craves GOP infighting and contrarian voices? Indeed, it seems vital to understand what actual voters believe.
We set out to test this question, commissioning leading polling firm Fabrizio Ward to survey voters’ political and policy preferences in the pivotal “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, whose votes will likely determine the next president.
It’s abundantly clear from the results that voters across the industrial Midwest strongly embrace pro-growth policies, including lower taxes, fewer regulations, and smaller government. As Fabrizio Ward makes clear: to win the Blue Wall states in November, Republicans shouldn’t pursue a half-hearted embrace of the progressive policy agenda – but rather double down on a winning and successful pro-growth policy plan.
Overall, pro-growth policy messages resonate with Blue Wall state voters. 91% of all voters, 95% of GOP voters, and 88% of Democratic voters surveyed support “promoting pro-growth economic policies.” A message that rejects high taxes, stifling regulations, and bloated government can form the building blocks of a winning coalition. This contradicts the narrative that a populist policy agenda has displaced traditional conservative policy priorities.
On the issue of taxes on businesses and corporations, 71% of all voters and 92% of GOP voters support maintaining current tax rates on businesses or lowering them further. More specifically, 59% of all voters and 82% of GOP voters support reducing the corporate tax rate. These same voters likewise take a dim view of an expanded role for the federal government in the economy. 71% of all voters and 90% of GOP voters reject a big-spending federal industrial policy and believe the free market should drive manufacturing.
A majority of voters believe that, despite all its challenges, the free market, rather than the government, should guide economic outcomes. 54% of all voters and 80% of GOP voters believe the federal government’s role in the economy should be reduced to allow the free market to shape commerce. Lastly, voters roundly reject forced unionization, with 82% of all voters and 97% of GOP voters supporting the right to work without forced union representation.
Some advocates have claimed that a “new right” populist agenda has displaced traditional pro-growth economic policy views among Republicans, but our new results show the opposite is true. Blue Wall state Republicans and swing voters serially reject an expanded role for the federal government in shaping commerce and for spending billions on a government-led industrial policy. Further, the right to work, rather than forced unionization, is almost universally embraced by Blue Wall state Republicans and swing voters.
Gordon Gray leads Pinpoint Policy Institute as Executive Director. Prior to launching Pinpoint, Gordon served as the Vice President for Economic Policy at the American Action Forum, where his portfolio included the federal budget, taxes, the macroeconomic outlook, and general economic policy matters.
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