Region still bracing for Iranian revenge attack
JERUSALEM – As the Mideast in particular, and the wider world in general, awaits Iran’s revenge strike for the killing of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders – the latter in its own capital – Iranian-aligned Shia militias fired multiple missiles at America’s Ain al-Asad Air Base in Iraq – wounding at least five military personnel.
Charles Lister, director of the Syria program of the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank, wrote on X: “Today’s rocket attack on Ain al-Asad was the 219th attack by Iran’s proxies on U.S. forces in Syria & Iraq since Oct 2023.”
NEW – early reports of another rocket attack on U.S. troops in Ain al-Asad base in #Iraq just now.
5+ troops were injured in one earlier, claimed by a Kataib #Hezbollah front group. https://t.co/NBgjV1mG7P
— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) August 5, 2024
He added six attacks have happened in the last three weeks. It was not immediately clear which group was responsible for the strike, although media linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the attack was carried out by one of its proxies, most likely an Iraqi offshoot of Hezbollah.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin labeled the attack a “dangerous escalation.”
Today, I spoke with Israeli Minster of Defense Yoav Gallant to reaffirm U.S. commitment to Israel’s defense from threats posed by Iran, Lebanese Hizballah, and other Iran-aligned militia groups. We agreed the attack from Iran-aligned militias on U.S. forces stationed at Al-Asad…
— Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (@SecDef) August 6, 2024
Tensions in the Middle East unabated
This strike against a U.S. base in Iraq is almost certainly a precursor for the predicted main event – of Iran and Hezbollah revenge for the recent killings on their home soil. Tensions in Israel – as they are in capitals the world over are extremely high – and there are a dizzying array of permutations of what is likely to take place; claims and counter-claims of who will align with whom, amid multiple reports of Iran utilizing its extensive network among its allies in Russia, North Korea, and even Pakistan to defend against predicted Israeli reprisals.
In Washington, the Biden-Harris administration seems resigned to the fact Tehran will order strikes against Israel and/or Israeli/Jewish targets overseas in the coming hours and days. Despite this assessment, the U.S. military – still by some distance the most powerful armed forces on the planet – have indeed been activated in the region.
An F/A-18E Super Hornet fighter jet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 34, lands on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71). Theodore Roosevelt is deployed to the USCENTCOM Area of Operations to support maritime security and… pic.twitter.com/7nS98md4rU
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) August 1, 2024
Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, commander of CENTCOM arrived in Israel Monday for top-level situational assessments with senior Israeli defense officials – including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Chief of the General Staff, Lt.-Gen Herzi Halevi.
The Commander of @CENTCOM , General Michael Erik Kurilla, arrived in Israel today as the official guest of the Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi.
The commanders held a joint situational assessment on security and strategic issues, as well as joint preparations in the… pic.twitter.com/u7A8YIPUrW
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) August 5, 2024
Apart from Gen. Kurilla’s presence, the Biden-Harris administration has given the green light for an impressive military presence to build up in the region, almost on a par with immediately post-Oct. 7.
According to former Jerusalem Post editor-in-chief Yaakov Katz, “The USS Lincoln carrier strike group is on its way to the region to replace the USS Roosevelt which is still here after replacing the Eisenhower strike group in June. Additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers have been deployed to the region from Eucom and Centcom regions and additional fighter jet squadrons, including a squadron of advanced stealthy F-22 Raptors, have been sent to the Middle East as well.”
Can the Biden administration do more to deter Iran from attacking Israel and American forces in the Middle East?
Yes. But, the military buildup in the region right now is not just impressive, it is almost unprecedented and is similar in scale to what was sent here after the… pic.twitter.com/T0QsP6qgvk
— Yaakov Katz (@yaakovkatz) August 6, 2024
Although, the substance of his post is still entirely valid, shows of force and the build-up of military assets is all well and good – and is a nod to tactical nous. However, the ultimate problem remains, a bellicose and increasingly emboldened Islamic Republic on the march and feeling itself immune to pressure, because almost none – Israel’s strike in Tehran excepted – has been visited on its doorstep.
Under President Trump, Iran’s muscular foreign policy of wreaking havoc in the region through the use of proxies while remaining “above the fray” was brought into question, particularly through the killing of former Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani. It is practically unthinkable the Biden administration would repeat anything like this bold move. In its desperation for “stability” it is sowing the seeds of potentially deadly chaos.
Indeed, the Times of Israel reported U.S. officials telling Israeli counterparts to not allow too strong a response – which seems entirely dependent on what Iran/Hezbollah hit. It is not at clear what would be considered an acceptable amount of damage or loss of life to not engender an increasingly potent reply. The U.S. warning concluded, “the goal at the end of the day is not to lead to an all-out war.”
Iran-Israel
Meanwhile, on the Iranian side, there are reports it will turn to its rogue friends for both defensive and offensive weaponry. As early as Sunday, eyewitness accounts – relayed in an X space on the Middle East crisis and reported in the New York Times on Monday – confirmed the presence of Russian-made air defense and radar systems in Tehran.
This development clearly shows the mullahs’ nervousness about the scale of the attack they have planned and the possible repercussions stemming from it. A crucial thing to bear in mind is Iran deployed similar weapons in April and they proved mostly ineffective against Israel’s response to the more than 300 projectiles fired toward it. The request came following a day-long visit to Tehran by the head of the Russian Security Council and former Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, on Monday.
Unlike the Iranian attack in April, the U.S. is still in the dark about what moves the Islamic Republic regime is likely to make – although it – and other actors – seem certain it will happen. This would appear doubly to be the case if the U.S. has already warned Israel – outlined above – about over-retaliating – which in any other circumstance would rightly be lampooned as a wild concept.
Surprising reports have also surfaced about Pakistan’s potential involvement with arming Iran with Shaheen-III ballistic missiles if war with Israel breaks out. The two countries have a long border and exchanged ballistic missiles in January, with Iran firing into its neighbor first. The decision was apparently reached at an emergency meeting of the foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), requested by Iran and Pakistan, took place Monday in the Saudi Arabian port city of Jeddah, with Iran examining its response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, according to the Jerusalem Post.
While Iran is a pre-nuclear power (just), Pakistan is one of the few countries to possess a nuclear arsenal. So too North Korea, a foe about which little seems to be known or attention given. Although one doesn’t want to give in to doomsday scenarios, this mysterious state could feel its time to play a major role on the international stage has come – and with a wildly unpredictable leader, it seems anything is possible.
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