JERUSALEM – Reports circulated in Hebrew media Monday of a preemptive Israeli strike to deter Iran from dealing a “heavy blow” to its regional nemesis in the wake of ratcheting tensions following the IDF’s elimination last week of both senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
These reports appeared in tandem with the U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s remarks to G7 counterparts about the likelihood of an Iranian response in the “next 24 to 48 hours.”
From the Israeli perspective, a preemptive strike would only be forthcoming if there were unimpeachable evidence of the kind of attack Tehran was planning – and was available to both Israel and the United States. This assessment followed Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convening a meeting of the country’s security chiefs Sunday evening.
Also present at the meeting were Mossad chief David Barnea, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant – with whom Netanyahu is again seemingly at odds and might even fire – and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.
Israeli preemptive strike?
While Israel took immediate credit for the strike which killed Shukr in Beirut – although the Iranian proxy delayed confirming his death until his corpse had been recovered from an apartment in the Lebanese capital’s Dahiyeh neighborhood – it has kept entirely mum on the operation that accounted for the arch Palestinian terrorist and embezzler of billions of dollars.
In spite of this apparent Israeli reticence to take credit for the hit, Iran has decided Jerusalem carried it out, and has threatened – in its blind fury at the humiliation it suffered on its own territory of failing to protect an honored guest – to target civilian population centers as well as military installations.
Scoop: Blinken told G7 Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel in next 24 hours. My story on @axioshttps://t.co/WqdzHYQEg8
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) August 5, 2024
Prior to Blinken’s warning, Iran was expected to strike back – either directly and/or via its many proxies in the region over the weekend. The fact this – as of writing – has not occurred highlights the bind in which the Islamic Republic – and to a certain degree – Hezbollah – find themselves.
Tehran has reportedly shaken off every and all attempts to get it to modulate its response, apparently telling U.S. and Arab interlocutors “it doesn’t care” if its response triggers a regional war. This is a complex stance to parse.
For the 45 years of its existence the Iranian theocracy has made it clear it sees the exporting of the Islamic revolution as its primary raison d’etre – and the inevitable showdown with the U.S. and Israel as a thing to be desired in and of itself.
However, it might not be in a position to achieve this goal at the moment; which would make the prospect of an all-out regional war, which could likely draw other actors – the United States, Russia, possibly China, and perhaps even North Korea – which has given technical expertise to Iran about manufacturing nuclear weapons – among them – as one in need of very careful deliberation.
Iranian state TV airing war propaganda pic.twitter.com/TbCZclQS4z
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 5, 2024
Biden to hold security assessment
The seriousness with which the situation is being viewed in capitals across the world is evident by reports U.S. President Joe Biden – in the dwindling light of a largely failed presidency, which has lacked either urgency or direction on the Iranian question for nearly four long years – will convene his national security team Monday.
Ahead of the meeting, Biden is expected to speak with Jordan’s King Abdullah, who announced he would not permit Iranian missiles to fly over Jordanian airspace. It is not clear if Biden will be able to array the same defensive configuration as was managed in April, when Iran launched more than 300 projectiles at Israel following the killing of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general in Damascus – almost all of which either fell short or were destroyed in the air.
Israel remains on the highest alert, and the direct Iranian threat in a way seems the least vexing, particularly with the U.S. stationing an aircraft carrier in the Eastern Mediterranean. Perhaps more concerning is the likely response from Iran’s proxies – particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could fire thousands of rockets designed to overwhelm Israel’s defensive missile shield, including Iron Dome, and the Arrow and David’s Sling systems, and the Houthi in Yemen.
Both of these groups have caused loss of life from missiles and drones fired into Israel – including the Iranian-made rocket which killed 12 Druze children playing soccer in Majdal Shams on July 27. Israeli intelligence assessments suggest the Iranian axis will likely target Israel – as well as potentially softer Israeli or Jewish targets overseas – over a number of days and the attacks will likely not simply resemble the one largely rebuffed in April.
On the home front, Israelis are remaining stoical, albeit grimly resigned to the almost certain inevitability of attacks from both Hezbollah and Iran.
Over the weekend some thought Iran and its proxies likely to attack Israel on Aug. 12/13, which this year coincides with the the most somber day in the Jewish calendar – namely Tisha B’Av or the Ninth of Av. It is a day much like Yom Kippur, where Jews are required to refrain from eating and drinking, and wearing leather shoes among other prohibitions.
Numerous calamities have befallen the Jewish people on this day, including the destruction of both the First and Second Holy Temples in Jerusalem, the decree for the expulsion from Spain during the Inquisition in 1492, and also the decision to liquidate the Warsaw Ghetto in 1942.
In biblical times, it was the date on which 10 of the 12 spies Moses sent to scout out the land, returned a report about the impregnability of its defenders. Judaism’s sages wrote about the somber fast day being transformed into a day of rejoicing. Will it be prefaced, however, by a regional war of unimaginable pain and suffering?
Israelis’ lives go on, but we wait and pray, trepidatious of what might come next.
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