Taipei, Taiwan — As China is set to host bilateral talks with the Philippines this month, their South China Sea dispute is expanding from sea to air, increasing the risk of military confrontation, analysts warn.
The Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper on Monday published an article warning that “China-Philippines relations stand at a crossroads” over the South China Sea dispute.
The warning came after Filipino Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo told reporters at a diplomatic reception on September 4 that Beijing will host the next round of the Bilateral Consultative Mechanism meetings designed to manage differences between the two countries.
Manalo did not say on which date the talks would start this month but expressed hope the two countries would discuss an incident in late August when coast guard ships from both sides collided at a disputed shoal. Both countries blame the other for the collision, though video released by the Philippine coast guard appears to show the Chinese coast guard ship ramming their vessel, BRP Teresa Magbanua.
It was the second such collision of their coast guard ships in August at the disputed atoll.
Vincent Kyle Parada, a former defense analyst for the Philippine Navy and a graduate student at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, says the frequency of the sea clashes is pushing the two sides to expand their operations to the air.
“Over the past few weeks, China has been actively working to disrupt resupply missions to the ship and crew, to the point that after one such failed attempt, the Philippine government announced that essential supplies reached critical levels,” he told VOA Mandarin. “Manila did manage to resupply BRP Teresa Magbanua through a helicopter, signaling this potential shift.”
Parada added, “This potential shift from maritime to aerial resupply emissions in the future is obviously a risk because China has also been escalating aerial operations in the South China Sea.
“Beijing would increase its aerial presence in the Spratlys and send fighter jets to its artificial islands for extended deployments. I think the goal there really would be to make aerial resupply emissions an incredibly dangerous policy option for Manila. That way, it limits Manila's ability to sustain a long-term presence in the disputed territories.”
According to the latest data from the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs, the administration of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has lodged 176 diplomatic protests with the Chinese government, which claims almost the entire South China Sea, putting it in conflict with Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.
Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and researcher at Xuanyuan (Hong Kong) Science and Technology Exchange Center, says any Chinese military moves in the airspace over the South China Sea are due to what he calls “illegal expansion” by the Philippines.
"Whether it's Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal or Sabina Shoal, these are all China's sovereign territories,” he told VOA Mandarin, repeating Beijing’s claims. “If the Philippines wants to conduct patrols or resupply by air, this in itself is violating the security of China's airspace, and China will inevitably take certain measures to intercept it.”
An article published on September 2 by the Beijing-based think tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative says since 2024, the Philippines has "repeatedly dispatched military aircraft to invade the islands and reefs of Spratly Islands and Macclesfield Bank" and also sent military aircraft to carry out airdrops and replenishment missions over the sea, indicating that "air intrusion is becoming another major path for the Philippines to cause trouble in the South China Sea."
The article warned that if the Philippines insists on carrying out an "air invasion," China will have to take corresponding measures, and "once there is friction or even collision, the consequences will be much more serious than the collision with a ship."
Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow and director at the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources in Taiwan, says China is more likely to take coercive actions in the air, making it difficult for the Philippines to defend its sovereignty.
"China may first take measures to interfere, as it does with the United States and Australian military aircraft, and it will scatter thermal flares to interfere so that Philippine helicopters may not be able to get close," Su told VOA Mandarin. “It may use jets to create turbulence, meaning it uses air from the jet tail to interfere with the Philippine helicopter when it’s flying.”
Su says Beijing is taking more aggressive interception actions, which greatly increase the risk of accidental conflict.
“The number of Chinese ships has increased. Second, coupled with the previous conflict between China and the Philippines in the sea, which caused injuries to Philippine coast guards, and now it threatens to use stronger means against the Philippine so-called aircraft, so it is moving the definition of gray zone operations closer to the direction of war.”
Philippine National Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro in August said the Philippines plans to purchase 40 new multirole fighter jets and mid-range missiles to strengthen its territorial defense, Reuters reported.
The U.S. in July repeated its commitment to the Philippines’ security after China’s increasingly assertive actions in the South China Sea. US reiterates 'ironclad' commitment to Philippines amid China actions in South China Sea.
Parts of the disputed South China Sea are believed to be rich in oil and gas, and the waters are an important transit point for trillions of dollars in annual shipping.
The Hague-based intergovernmental Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 unanimously ruled that China’s claim to almost all the South China Sea had “no legal basis,” which Beijing rejected.
Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report. Some information for this report came from Reuters.
