THERE are 650 seats up for grabs in this election – but just a select few will change how Parliament is made up for the next five years.
From Nigel Farage’s thunderbolt return in Clacton to even the PM’s own seat, the one thing we can be certain about is that there are no dead certains once every vote is in.
But it’s not all rosy for Labour either.
Despite expecting a night of sweeping gains, several of their top MPs are under threat from Green or Independent candidates.
Here, we take a look at ten key races that could impact the final results.
Clacton
Held by: Conservative
Target for: Reform
Typically a Tory safe seat, the entry of Nigel Farage in Clacton electrified not only the local race but the national election campaign.
The Reform leader has tried and failed seven times to become an MP but this time it feels as if the pieces have slotted into place for a milestone victory.
At 60, and having already “retired” from politics once, this may well be Farage’s final shot at Parliament – but as an untested electoral force, there is still a chance the polls are wrong.
Yet the people of Clacton do have form for pivoting from the Tories.
In 2015 they returned Ukip’s Douglas Carswell, a Conservative defector, with Farage’s strong backing.
And with the Brexit champion drawing crowds of nearly 1,000 to campaign rallies, his passage to Westminster may well be secure after falling short so many times.
Richmond and Northallerton
Held by: Conservative
Target for: Labour
At any other election, Rishi Sunak would assume that his seat was safe – but the polls have tightened in this corner of true blue North Yorkshire.
His Labour opponent, Tom Wilson, genuinely believes he has a chance at ousting the sitting Prime Minister, something which has never happened before.
And the PM has made seven trips to his constituency so far in this campaign with leaflets promoting the man who lives in No.10 as a “community champion”.
Only one poll has been brave enough to claim Rishi faces the axe, and crucially it would take a 23-point swing to oust him.
Bristol Central
Held by: Labour
Target for: Green
While it is expected to be a night of Labour gains, there are still a few big hitters under threat from third parties.
Shadow frontbencher Thangam Debbonaire, standing in the new Bristol Central seat, has inherited a large chunk of Green Party voters following boundary re-drawings last year, putting her mega 32 per cent margin at threat.
It means the Greens could double their haul of seats in Parliament, with Sir Keir directing resources from elsewhere in the region to save his at-risk frontbencher.
Rochdale
Held by: Worker’s Party
Target for: Labour
When George Galloway romped to victory in Rochdale it was a major blow for Sir Keir Starmer, whose stance on Gaza enraged Muslim voters in the typically safe Labour seat.
Even before the party’s candidate Azhar Ali was dropped for anti-semitic comments, polls pointed at a win for the firebrand left-winger.
Though months later, and with ex-journalist Paul Waugh standing for Labour, the party is confident it can reclaim a heartland seat and boot Galloway from Parliament for good.
Nuneaton
Held by: Conservative
Target for: Labour
Seen as a national bellwether, Nuneaton has sided with the party that went on to form the government at every election since 1997.
And unlike some other bellweathers, it’s even spawned a nickname for voters – with parties of all stripes trying to get the ‘Nuneaton woman’ onside.
A win here, in a town packed with working-age families, is considered a gold-ticket indicator of which party is cutting through to the heart of Britain.
And this year is set to be no different, with polls showing Labour 15 points clear in the Warwickshire town.
Bournemouth East and Bournemouth West
Held by: Conservative
Target for: Labour
Even at the height of Tony Blair’s powers, neither Bournemouth seat ever drifted to Labour.
So both Tobias Ellwood and Sir Conor Burns would usually assume they had an easy ride back into Parliament.
But this time the pair are projected to both be ousted by Sir Keir’s candidates – with increasing student numbers in the seaside town fundamentally changing the demographics of the electorate.
Ashfield
Held by: Reform (elected Conservative)
Target for: Labour
Lee Anderson’s high-profile defection to Reform after months of courting gave the insurgent right-wing party its only MP, but the ex-Tory (and even formerly ex-Labour) member could be on his way out.
His Ashfield seat in Nottingham is a two-horse race between Reform and Labour, with the Tories a distant third despite a significant swing to win amid a Red Wall blitz in 2019.
The polling shows that on a night when Nigel Farage’s party make breakthroughs elsewhere in the country, Ashfield could be their only loss.
Cannock Chase
Held by: Conservative
Target for: Labour
Held by ex-Tory chair Amanda Milling, Labour requires a 25 per cent swing to haul this Warwickshire heartland constituency into the red.
Just north of Birmingham, it is predicted by several pollsters to be the largest Tory to Labour swing tonight,
Labour previously held the seat between 1997 and 2010.
Some metrics indicate the incumbent MP may hold on, albeit with a minuscule majority.
But the fact it takes significant resources to defend is an indicator of the depths of Tory woes in this campaign.
If it falls, Cannock would become symbolic of the sweeping changes across the whole of the UK.
Birmingham Ladywood
Held by: Labour
Target for: Independent
In the West Midlands mayoral election in May, the story of the night was not Labour ousting the respected Andy Street, but rather the surge of support for independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob.
The Lambo-driving influencer scooped 70,000 votes – 11 per cent – after a six-week campaign run almost entirely through social media.
The TikTok star and lawyer has now told constituents in the Muslim-heavy Birmingham Ladywood constituency to pledge “your vote for Gaza” to oust Labour’s Shadow Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
Polls show the social media influencer is adrift by 20 points, but with the unknown variant of an independent candidate, the internet star could pull off another shock.
Another facing a threat from the left is Wes Streeting in Ilford South, though the Shadow Health Secretary is expected to comfortably survive.
Hamilton and Clyde Valley
Held by: SNP
Target for: Labour
With the SNP mired in scandal, Labour’s haul of seats across Scotland is set to surge from two to more than 25,
Hamilton and Clyde Valley is a new seat, but the former Lanark and Hamilton East had been held by the SNP since 2015.
And last time around, Labour slumped to third behind the Conservatives.
So a loss here would pile even more humiliation on SNP chief and Scots First Minister John Swinney.
So no gain would better symbolise Labour’s return to dominance in Scotland than scooping an SNP target from its heartlands after nearly a decade in the wilderness north of the border.
