FOR me, England versus Germany is not a last-16 match, it is a semi-final.
Whoever wins, I cannot see them failing to make the final.
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Win this and you face Sweden or Ukraine in the quarter-finals, then the Czech Republic or Denmark in the semis.
You must respect all of those teams as they are there for a reason but, for a big team like England or Germany, this is like a semi-final.
Lose in the last 16 and you go home with a shadow over you. Win and you should go all the way — because the power is in the other half of the draw.
Gareth Southgate’s players are right not to worry about England’s history against Germany.
I’m not superstitious and I don’t go looking for history. For example, I had a very bad record at St James’ Park but I never went there thinking about that and, one day, I won there.
BETTING SPECIAL
It’s the same with people saying: “England always lose on penalties.”
At the last World Cup, England won a shootout against Colombia.
This is not to say you shouldn’t fear Germany. They always have a strong mentality and they always seem to arrive at a summer tournament in a stronger physical shape than many others.
They lost 6-0 to Spain in the Nations League and they lost at home to North Macedonia in a World Cup qualifier in March — but their coach, Joachim Low, didn’t leave after that historical result.
He will go after the Euros and be replaced by Hansi Flick, who has a history of winning with the core of the national team at Bayern Munich. They have stability.
Germany lost their first match against France but it was not the end of the world.
They needed to win against Portugal and did it. Then they were in trouble against Hungary but managed to be Germany and got the draw they needed.
I think the best way for England to set up is to mirror Germany’s system of a back three and wing-backs.
Portugal played with a back four against Germany and the German wing-backs, Robin Gosens and Josh Kimmich, destroyed Portugal. Portugal couldn’t cope.
Everything was starting with Kimmich on the right, then an overload on that wing, attracting the Portuguese team to that side, then quick changes of direction to Gosens, who is playing amazingly.
Hungary, who can’t compare to the strength of the Portuguese, played with a back five and they controlled Kimmich and Gosens.
England have played three games with a back four and haven’t conceded a goal, so I wouldn’t be critical if Gareth goes with a four again — but it would then be compulsory for incredible defensive work from the wingers, which would limit their attacking capabilities.
When Portugal lost on Sunday, they played with a back four against Belgium’s back five. Thorgan Hazard, at left wing-back, scored the winner because Bernardo Silva, playing as a winger, didn’t control him in that situation.
England have played with a back three and wing-backs many times, including in the World Cup, and many of their players play that system with their clubs.
Whether Gareth goes with a four or a five, they must realise that the two most important players in the German dynamic are Kimmich and Gosens.
There is not a super striker, not a super target man.
Toni Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan are very good midfielders but I don’t see them playing amazingly at this moment. Kimmich and Gosens balance everything.
England could go with either Kyle Walker, who has great pace, or Tyrone Mings, a left-footer with great physicality, alongside Harry Maguire and John Stones.
If Walker goes to the central three, then Kieran Trippier or Reece James at right wing-back and Luke Shaw on the left.
There isn’t a single England player who isn’t performing well. Raheem Sterling is doing his job very well and scoring.
Harry Kane is playing for the team, Mason Mount is playing well but we can’t know whether he is able to start tomorrow after he had to isolate.
You can’t say Phil Foden played badly. Marcus Rashford isn’t a happy guy to be on the bench but when he comes you can see a positive attitude. Jude Bellingham has the potential for more but when he comes on, he does his job.
England are consistent, not conceding goals. Germany are more inconsistent but they have this mentality to cope well with pressure.
I don’t think people are expecting a lot from them. Playing away, without German fans, sometimes you miss it — but when you aren’t in a great moment, you prefer to play without your fans, to disconnect from the outside pressure.
I always fear the Germans because they just make it happen. But I like this England team and now that Portugal are out, I am supporting England and I want to see Harry Kane collecting the trophy on July 11.
I’M not surprised that Holland went out against the Czech Republic — they played in quite an easy group, played three matches in Amsterdam, and people maybe thought they were better than they are.
I never felt they could do anything special, playing in a way that is not the Dutch way.
Since Ronald Koeman left and was replaced by Frank de Boer, there have been contradictions in the team, they lost some stability.
As for Portugal, I am sad rather than disappointed. They were not bad against Belgium.
After a first half where two good teams showed each other a lot of respect, Belgium’s goal changed everything.
Portugal took risks, made changes and became more offensive. Andre Silva became the main striker and Cristiano Ronaldo could move and create more.
It was a proud way for the champions to go out. They lost but gave everything against candidates to win the tournament.
