BRITAIN’S coronavirus R rate has fallen since last week – but it is still above the crucial value of 1. Government scientists said the current R value – the number of people an infected person will pass Covid-19 on to – is between 1.2 and 1.5. This is down slightly on last week when it […]
BRITAIN’S coronavirus R rate has fallen since last week – but it is still above the crucial value of 1.
Government scientists said the current R value – the number of people an infected person will pass Covid-19 on to – is between 1.2 and 1.5.
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This is down slightly on last week when it was between 1.3 and 1.6.
However the R rate is still at the highest level since mid-March – in the weeks before the national lockdown.
It means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 15 other people, according to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).
R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.
When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.
The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is now between four per cent and nine per cent.
However, the most likely value is towards the middle of that range, the experts say.
Scientists behind the data said R and growth rates are not the only important measures of the epidemic and should be considered alongside other metrics.
Sage said it was “almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow exponentially across the country, and is confident that the transmission is not slowing.
“While the R value remains above 1.0, infections will continue to grow at an exponential rate.
“This is currently the case for every region of England and all have positive growth rates, reflecting increases in the number of new infections across the country.”
R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.
Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread – and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.
For example, if a virus has an R0 of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.
It’s also worth pointing out that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly.
It comes as a major study has revealed coronavirus cases are doubling twice as fast in the North West, Yorkshire and the West Midlands as for the whole of England.
Experts behind the React study said the rate of growth of the epidemic across England has slowed in the last month, but the country was now at a “critical point in the second wave”.
Meanwhile, separate data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that 224,400 people in England had coronavirus between September 25 and October 1, equating to about one in 240 people.
The figures represent a big jump from 116,600 people who were estimated to have Covid-19 in the previous week.
The ONS said cases “have increased rapidly” in the latest data.
Experts from Imperial College London, who run the React study, warned that current measures such as the rule of six and restrictions in the north of England will not be enough to bring the epidemic under control.
They said “further fixed-duration measures should be considered to reduce the infection rate and limit the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19”.
The report looked at Covid-19 swabs from 174,949 volunteers tested across England between September 18 and Monday this week.
It found cases are doubling every 29 days in England, much slower than the 13 days estimated for the period mid August to early September, resulting in a national reproductive rate (the R number) of 1.16.
At a regional level, the team estimated cases are doubling much quicker – every 17 days in the North West, 13 days in Yorkshire and the Humber and 14 days in the West Midlands.
However, they said the doubling time may be as low as seven days in Yorkshire and the West Midlands, and every nine days in the North West.
Across England, about one in 170 people currently have the virus and there are approximately 45,000 new infections each day, the report continued.
It pointed to “high prevalence” of Covid-19 across England and said “prevalence has increased in all age groups, including those at highest risk”.
The highest prevalence of the virus is among 18 to 24-year olds, but prevalence among anyone aged 65 and over has increased eight-fold since mid August to early September, to 0.33%, the report said.
It also found that at least half of people with Covid-19 will also not display symptoms on the day of testing or in the previous week.
The experts concluded: “Improved compliance with existing policy and, as necessary, additional interventions are required to control the spread of (coronavirus) in the community and limit the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19.”
The report put the R value in the North West at 1.27, at 1.37 in Yorkshire and the Humber, and 1.33 in the West Midlands.
For London, the team estimated an R value of 0.97 and suggested the high number of cases seen in the first wave may have had an effect on the capital.
Separate data from the Covid Symptom Study (CSS) app run by King’s College suggests there are currently, 21,903 daily new symptomatic cases of Covid in the UK on average.
Its data points to more than five times more cases in the North compared with the south of England.
