NEARLY half of counties in the United States are seeing an “epidemic trend” of coronavirus – and one model predicted 224,000 deaths by November 1. Spatial analytics company Esri compiled a disturbing data map which shows the uncontrollable spread of the deadly bug across The Sun Belt and even some midwestern states. Currently, 1,415 counties […]
NEARLY half of counties in the United States are seeing an “epidemic trend” of coronavirus – and one model predicted 224,000 deaths by November 1.
Spatial analytics company Esri compiled a disturbing data map which shows the uncontrollable spread of the deadly bug across The Sun Belt and even some midwestern states.
Currently, 1,415 counties are experiencing an epidemic outbreak and 1,103 are showing spreading trends out of the 3,141 counties in America.
But the data indicates this outbreak could still be controlled with mitigation measures.
Arizona, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, and others are seeing epidemic trends.
In Mississippi, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee, only one or two counties aren’t seeing an uncontrollable spread right now.
Hard-hit Texas and California have a few counties that have the contagion spread under control, the map revealed.
Coronavirus infections have topped 3.4 million as of July 16 as more than 137,000 Americans lost their battle with the fatal sickness.
But recent models predict a dire surge in COVID-19 related fatalities.
Researchers have urged Americans to don a face covering to save 40,000 people between now and November.
By August 1, the nation will experience 151,000 virus deaths and up to 157,000 a week later, according to 23 research group models in the United States and abroad.
The University of Massachusetts Amherst’s Reich lab published the figures the CDC uses, which only last week, heralded 147,000 deaths in just 16 days time.
On Thursday, UMass Professor Nicholas Reich said their model projected 5,000 deaths per week for the next four weeks, saying “sadly, this outbreak is far from over.”
This model predicts that California, Florida and Texas will see 1,000 more deaths over the next month versus the previous four.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME) model projected the death toll will climb to just above 224,000 by November 1.
But 40,000 people could be saved if 95 percent of Americans wore a mask, per this data set.
This latest IHME forecast was revised from their July 7 projection of 208,254 coronavirus fatalities.
As mask compliance rises, IHME researchers confirmed that if the majority of people wore one in public, infection rates, hospitalizations, and forecast deaths would all drop.
The news emerged after Alabama, Florida and North Carolina reported record daily increases in deaths from COVID-19 on Tuesday.
That day, the US hit a single-day spike in cases of 67,400
Almost half of these infections were in Texas, Florida and California as the country now averages about 60,000 cases daily.
Forty six states reported more new cases of COVID-19 last week, reported Reuters, citing The COVID Tracking Project data.
Cases are declining in New York – the former US epicenter – Tennessee, New Jersey and Delaware.
But on Tuesday, CDC director Robert Redfield speculated that the southern spike may be a result of people from the Northeast vacationing rather than premature reopening.
“We tried to give states guidance on how to reopen safely. I think the guidance we put out was really sound,” he told Dr Howard Bauchner of The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).
“I think if you look critically, few states actually followed that guidance, although I don’t think the reopening’s actually what’s driving the current Southern expansion right now.”
Redfield explained his theory behind The Sun Belt spread last month, suggesting travelers from other states as a possible explanation.
“If you look at the South, everything happened around June 12 to June 16,” he said. “It all simultaneously kind of popped.
“We’re of the view that there was something else that was the driver.
“Maybe the Memorial Day, not weekend, but the Memorial Day week, where a lot of Northerners decided to go South for vacations.”
He said initially social distancing guidelines weren’t strictly adhered to in the South because their outbreaks weren’t major – but now coronavirus is taking hold.
“Something happened in mid-June that we’re now confronting right now. It’s not as simple as saying it was related to the timing of reopening and no reopening,” he said.
The interview coincided with his JAMA editorial in which Redfield and two other experts said the US could control the spread in just four weeks if everyone wore a mask.
Redfield told Bauchner he was “heartened” to see President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence setting a good example during his interview with Bauchner.
