THE final UK coronavirus death toll could be worse than WW2 with almost 700,000 fatalities over five years, a new study warns.
In order to ward the virus off completely, social distancing measures would need to continue until December 2024 and its collateral effects will be greater than deaths from the virus itself, a British professor predicts.
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Philip Thomas, Professor of Risk Management at the University of Bristol, estimates that if the Government continues to keep infection rates below an R number of one by enforcing intermittent lockdown conditions, then 150,000 people will die from Covid-19 over five years.
But those who will die from the collateral effects of lengthy lockdown measures – such as poverty on healthcare and general impoverishment – will be three times greater and see as many as 675,000 deaths.
The analysis is to be published in an upcoming edition of the scientific journal Nanotechnology Perceptions.
It is based on projected death rates linked to the virus, together with the economic impact of social distancing or lockdown and that of previous recessions.
Approximately 525,000 British civilian and military personnel died in the Second World War.
The paper reads: “A ‘business as usual’ policy would lead to the epidemic being over by September 2020, but such an approach would lead to a loss of life in the UK little less than what it suffered in the Second World War.”
Professor Thomas notes that measures to combat the virus may mean the “national population loses more life as a result of the countermeasure than it gains”.
He adds: “The challenge for the UK Government (and other governments around the world) will be to manage its interventions so that the recession that is now inevitable is not significantly worse than that following the 2007–9 financial crash.”
Coming out of lockdown gradually, over five years … will reduce the toll on life from the coronavirus but incur a far greater loss of life through the impoverishment of the nation.
Professor Philip Thomas
Speaking to the Sunday Express, he explained: “It is not enough to look at the epidemiology, the spread of Covid-19, in isolation. You need to look just as much at the effect on the economy because a nation’s economy and its health are so strongly linked that at some point they become inseparable. Poverty kills just as surely as the coronavirus.
“The only reason we have good health and live a long time is because we are one of the wealthiest nations in the world.
“The policy of coming out of lockdown gradually, over five years – which will be necessary if we are to keep the infection rate close to or below one – will reduce the toll on life from the coronavirus but incur a far greater loss of life through the impoverishment of the nation.
“The net loss of life is likely to be of the order of 675,000 lives. This is higher than over the six years of the Second World War.
“The initial pandemic response to lockdown as a device for gaining time to build defences and make sure our health service was not overwhelmed was a reasonable response. But our society cannot remain under siege forever and we need to find a way of returning towards normality.
The net loss of life is likely to be of the order of 675,000 lives. This is higher than over the six years of the Second World War.
Professor Philip Thomas
“I think we can more or less justify a lockdown of two months based on the ill effects to the economy, but three months is too long.
“We now have to realise if we do go so slowly and continue with the aim to keep the infection rate close to or below one then the number of deaths from the prolonged lockdown will be far worse and we will be condemning people to significant impoverishment, permanent loss of wealth and more deaths than lives saved.”
The Government says it is planning to move cautiously out of lockdown, with Boris Johnson urging Brits in the Sunday press conference to “stay at home as much as possible”.
The PM said: “Everyone has a role to play in helping to control the virus by staying alert and following the rules.
“This is how we can continue to save lives as we start to recover from coronavirus.”
Mr Johnson warned that the UK is about to enter the most dangerous phase of the battle against coronavirus and urged “maximum caution”.
He told The Sun on Sunday: “This is the dangerous bit.
“We’re past the peak now but we’ll have to work even harder to get every step right.
“Mountaineers always say that coming down from the peak is the most dangerous bit. That’s when you’re liable to be over-confident and make mistakes.
“You have very few options on the climb up — but it’s on the descent you have to make sure you don’t run too fast, lose control and stumble.”
However, Professor Thomas’ paper says in order to maintain this degree of caution will likely to cause a drop of 23.5 per cent to the economy in 2020 and still further in 2021.
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Without a vaccine, it would take until 2024 until the virus is contained, the paper states.
Meanwhile, coronavirus deaths in the UK have jumped to 31,855 after 269 more people died – the lowest rise since March.
Nine in ten people do not want Boris Johnson to ease the lockdown, a Sun on Sunday poll reveals.
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