EUROPE faces 1.2m job losses and a “disastrous” hit to key sectors of its economy under a No Deal Brexit, a shock report revealed yesterday.
Experts have calculated that the EU’s growth will be slashed by 1.54% in the “short term” after Britain leaves without an agreement.
Ireland would be the worst hit, shedding 50,330 jobs – more than 2.5% of its workforce – and losing £9bn of value from its economy.
But the UK would also be badly affected, forfeiting 4.4% of GDP and suffering a 525,000 hike in unemployment under such a scenario.
In contrast, under a soft Brexit job cuts across the EU would be significantly lower at around 280,000, while the UK would lose 140,000.
The bombshell study, from the University of Leuven, will heap pressure on eurocrats to soften their hardline stance to avoid the damage of a crash out.
Leo Varadkar has dug in over the backstop but is facing pressure on his No Deal border plan from states including Germany, France and the Netherlands.
Report author Professor Hylke Vandenbussche said the impact on Europe of a crash out “is going to be a lot bigger” than previously thought.
That’s because her study takes into account how supply chains across the EU and globally would be disrupted, not just the countries’ direct trade with the UK.
It calculates that France would lose 141,320 jobs under No Deal, while Germany would shed 291,930 and struggling Italy 139,140.
Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Portugal are also set for a sizeable hit as are Eastern European states like Poland and the Czech Republic.
The report calculates the initial hit to the European countries from No Deal, before their economies and supply chains have had a chance to readjust.
It was compiled for the government of Flanders, in Belgium, which will be one of the worst affected regions of Europe.
Flanders foreign affairs chief Julie Bynens said: “European supply chains will be severely damaged and may come to a halt at the UK border without a soft Brexit.
“For some member states a hard Brexit would create a devastating impact on sectors such as textiles, food and beverages, agriculture and livestock farming and metals.
“There is no such thing as a perfectly ‘managed’ No Deal Brexit.”
