Scottie Scheffler will start the Tour Championship with a two shot lead over Xander Schauffele, and up to ten shots clear of the rest of the 30-man field gathered in Atlanta this week.
But as in previous years, it is not the actual FedEx Cup race that appeals as a betting medium, but the 72 hole stroke play market.
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Those odds are set assuming everyone starts off level, and even though Scheffler is still a warm favourite at 4-1, he can definitely be taken on.
He has failed to close the deal at East Lake in either of the past two years after arriving as the top ranked player. The world No 1 just seems to find it hard to produce his best stuff here.
And his lukewarm performance at the BMW Championship suggested a gruelling season that has brought six PGA Tour wins – and an Olympic gold medal – may finally be taking a mental toll.
Schauffele, who is second best in the market at 5-1, deserves to be a clear favourite in my book.
He shot the lowest 72 hole score last year, the third time he has done that since the season-long handicap system was introduced. He is a real East Lakes specialist, with a scoring average of 66.6 here.
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Schauffele will find things a bit different this time, as the course has undergone a complete makeover.
The greens have been dug up and replaced with different grasses, and the 14th has been turned into a par five to make East Lake a par 71. So maybe that 5-1 is a bit short, even though Schauffele has enjoyed a red-hot 2024, with two Major victories.
The fact that it is all a bit new could play into the hands of 16-1 shot Ludvig Aberg, who is making his Tour Championship debut.
That lack of experience may have been a hindrance in previous years. But a revamped East Lakes will present a new challenge for everyone.
Aberg would probably have beaten Keegan Bradley at the BMW if he had adapted to the oddities of playing at altitude a bit better.
The young Swede had to settle for a share of second. But there are no quirks to playing in Atlanta, and he looks to represent the best value.
Sam Burns and Adam Scott shared second place with Aberg in Denver, and at 25-1 Burns also looks like a player worth backing. He finished in a share of fifth in the previous play-off event, the St Jude, so he is in cracking form.
Sungjae Im is also available at 25-1, and the ultra-consistent Korean star has to enter the calculations, especially after his second place finish here a year ago.
He has made the Tour Championship six years in a row, and always plays well at this time of year.
Rory McIlroy has tons of ‘previous’ in Atlanta, as the only three-time FedEx cup winner. But he continued to make some dozy mistakes in Denver, and a best-priced 12-1 has scant appeal.
I would prefer to take a punt on his Olympic team-mate Shane Lowry at 50-1, while 66-1 shot Chris Kirk is another outsider who could go well. He booked his place here with a top ten at the BMW, when the pressure was really on.
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The British Masters goes up against the Tour Championship, and the clash of dates means there are precious few big names in the field.
The big draw is Ryder Cup star Tyrrrell Hatton. His big money move to LIV should have ruled him out of this event, but the fact that he is appealing against the ban and fines imposed on him by the DP World Tour has cleared the way for him to start.
Hatton has been installed as a clear 7-1 favourite – you can get at least 22-1 about any other player in the Belfry line-up. But Hothead Hatton has not always responded well to being the centre of attention.
Fellow Englishman Joe Dean struck me as a player worth following when he finished fifth in Denmark last week. So 66-1 looks tempting.
Another home golfer, Alex Fitzpatrick, also catches the eye at 50-1, especially as some bookmakers are offering ten places in the each way market.
Thorbjorn Olesen’s golf continues to drift between the bad and the brilliant. But if has one of his good weeks, the 2022 British masters winner could represent good value at 28-1.
Lucas Bjerregaard bounced back to form with a share of second last week, and is 80-1 to keep up the good work.
And if those odds are not long enough, maybe a small interest on Oliver Wilson at 250-1 is the answer. He has shown glimpses of form in his last three outings, and finished joint second at the Belfry last year. So he is certainly not a no-hoper.
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