There weren’t any volcanic eruptions in the vice president debate, but the dramatic encounter between Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) was great theater. The debate, viewed by 43 million Americans, will have an impact on the outcome of the presidential race.
The effect may be minor, but a small disturbance in the force is all that it may take in a closely contested presidential race.
A new series of polls in the battleground states conducted for the Cook Political Report illustrates just how close the battle for the White House is. In all seven of the key states in the Electoral College Combat Zone, the presidential hopefuls are locked in a statistical tie.
The last month of the race will be a long hard grind. A ripple in the water could create a big wave in the ocean.
Former President Trump may not win the White House. He certainly won’t win any participation trophies because of his fear of confronting Vice President Kamala Harris again. The vice presidential debate may be the last chance that a national television audience can learn what it can expect from the potential administrations.
After a brutal beat down by the Democratic presidential nominee, the former president ducked an interview on CBS News’ “60 Minutes” as part of a prime time special that would have included a separate interview with Harris. The GOP standard-bearer chickened out of another direct confrontation with the Democratic nominee later this month on CNN. On the old TV show “Dragnet,” Detective Joe Friday just wanted the facts. Trump doesn’t want anything to do with facts and fact-checking.
Vance, the Yale Law School graduate, was the most polished debater, but at times he appeared robotic. Vance was masterful at deflecting awkward questions. He found cold comfort in retreating to Trump campaign talking points and to immigration, the Republican trump card. Walz hesitated a couple of times, but the high school social studies teacher and football coach seemed more human for it.
To really understand survey research, it is necessary to look past the head-to-head matchups and take a deep dive into the belly of the beast. The CNN post-debate viewer poll revealed that the senator had a slight edge (51 percent to 49 percent) in voter evaluations of debate performance, but Walz reaped a clear edge in other vital post-debate assessments. The headline of a Washington Post analysis was telling, “Vance probably ‘won’ the debate, but Walz might have gained more.”
Vance impressed with his debate skills, but the Democratic contender touched more hearts and souls.
Debate viewers were likely to believe that Walz more than his opponent was qualified to serve as president, if necessary. This could be an important consideration because of Trump’s age and questions about his mental acuity. Vance is smooth as silk but maybe too smooth for his own good. Viewers picked the governor as the vice presidential candidate in touch with the needs and concerns of people like them.
The viewer survey also indicated that there was a big increase in the governor’s personal standing and a smaller growth in his opponent’s image after the debate. This left Walz with an enormous edge in popularity (59 percent favorable-22 percent unfavorable) over Vance (41 percent favorable-44 percent unfavorable). That means Walz has a net popularity of plus-37 while Vance registers on the Richter Scale as a negative political asset at minus-3.
This advantage allows Harris the freedom to send her running mate after swing voters in the battleground states while Vance is confined to churning out the vote among the Trump faithful in secondary media markets. Trump’s crown prince may have solidified his position as the MAGA heir apparent for 2028. The governor addressed a more immediate concern which to help his running mate win this year’s election.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster, CEO of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.
