Rep. Tony Gonzales’s (R-Texas) pessimistic prediction that the House GOP conference will lose its majority in November is sparking frustrations among Republican lawmakers, while underscoring just how competitive the race for the lower chamber will be this fall.
The surprise comments from Gonzales at the Texas Tribune Festival on Thursday drew widespread attention, breaking from the positive expectations other GOP lawmakers have publicly hammered home.
Privately, the remarks are making waves among House Republicans, who believe Gonzales’s surprise forecast is simply untrue, better kept to himself, and unproductive as rank-and-file members fight furiously to hang on to their edge in the chamber.
“Entirely unnecessary and not at all what we feel on the ground,” one Republican who represents a district President Biden won in 2020 told The Hill.
A second Biden-district Republican echoed that sentiment — “I think he’s wrong” — before tearing into Gonzales for airing his reservations publicly.
“Even if you believe that, it’s extremely unhelpful and counterproductive to the cause,” the GOP lawmaker wrote. “[T]he Members and seats that will decide the outcomes, are not going to be determined by the handful of folks who have undermined the majority. It’ll be determined by the members and the work they have done in their own district.”
“Well that’s a team player???” a third House Republican told The Hill in a text message. “Have you ever heard someone on a sports TEAM say that about their TEAM. Just disappointing.”
The cynicism from Gonzales, a border-district Republican, is fueled in part by irritation with the chaos that has been the 118th Congress, which began with a drawn-out Speaker’s race, came close to allowing a default on U.S. debts, and experienced the first-ever successful move to oust the House Speaker.
His public airing of grievances comes as Republicans are facing pressure electorally: while Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans a 56 percent chance of winning the House, forecasters have decreased the party’s chances of holding the House majority and forecasters say the chamber is essentially a toss-up. At the same time, the party is losing the cash dash to Democrats, who experienced a jolt of enthusiasm after Vice President Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the ticket.
“What’s frustrating me is I firmly believe that House Republicans are going to lose the majority — and we’re going to lose it because of ourselves,” Gonzales said in a discussion with Punchbowl News at the Texas Tribune Festival.
Gonzales, who was first elected to the House in 2020, knocked his party for its deep focus on impeaching Biden throughout this Congress, an effort that fizzled after the party failed to find a smoking gun against the president.
“Are we talking about some of these kind of kitchen table issues? No — it’s all about who we’re going to impeach,” Gonzales said.
“I get that part of our job is oversight — but it’s not the entire job,” he added.
The Texas Republican elaborated on his remarks in wake of the GOP pushback in comments to The Hill, standing by his concerns that the loudest message is coming from Republicans.
“House Republicans have good candidates and great members. If we can get our message back on track talking about our solutions to the failed Biden-Harris economy and security policies that negatively impact Americans, we are in great shape,” Gonzales told The Hill.
“The growing number of blue collar Americans who can’t afford to purchase a home. The rampant illegal immigration crisis which makes our communities less safe. If we show we are [the] party that can’t govern, nothing good will come out of it. It’s all about the message and the messengers,” he said.
But his GOP colleagues in the House — including members whose races will make or break the majority — disagreed with the analysis and criticized the move by Gonzales to publicly vocalize it.
“Sure, we are all frustrated, but handing over Congress to the [party that] plunged us into high costs and abandoned borders. Stay focused!” the first Biden-district Republican said.
Gonzales is no stranger to fiery ideological battles in the Republican Party. He overcame a primary challenge from the right earlier this year, called some of his conservative colleagues in the House “scumbags,” and was censured by the Texas Republican Party over his votes in favor of gun safety legislation and a bill to codify same-sex marriage protections.
The National Republican Congressional Committee Press Secretary Will Reinert had a two-word response to Gonzales anticipating the House flipping to Democratic control: “We disagree.”
That jibes with Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) messaging that Republicans will keep the House. During a call with Trump’s campaign on Friday, the Speaker predicted Republicans could have as large as a 13-seat majority next year if the party has a good night in November, a source on the call told The Hill.
Democrats need to flip at least four seats to regain control of the House. The DDHQ/The Hill forecast puts 10 districts in the toss-up category. Almost all of those are not in states that are competitive in the presidential race.
The second Biden-district Republican laid out the case for the GOP keeping the House, pointing to GOP gaining seats when Trump won 2016 and even when he was on the ballot but lost in 2020.
“[T]he map favors Republicans, the issues favor Republicans, and with Trump on the ballot, the base will come out,” the lawmaker said.
Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.), who is retiring from Congress at the end of the year, also pointed to past GOP performance in House races when expressing confidence about Republicans being able to win in blue-state races.
“House Republicans have outperformed President Trump … in congressional districts in California, New York before. So I think we're in good shape,” Buschon said.
Buschon said that Gonzales might be responding to concerns he is hearing in his district.
“But that's not what I'm hearing, of course, in Indiana and from my other colleagues, particularly my New York colleagues and California colleagues, who are pretty bullish on House Republicans right now,” Buschon said.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) also noted that the districts that will decide control of the House are much different than that of Gonzales.
“I love Tony, but you’re sitting in Texas wondering about what might happen. It’s a totally different world when you actually go to the districts where these battleground races are being held,” Scalise told Punchbowl News.
Still, Gonzales is not alone in his worries about the election, or in pointing the finger at the Republican party.
“I’m focused on my own race because the party isn’t focused on the issues that will help us win. Repeat of 2022,” one House Republican told The Hill. “We will not win nearly as many seats as we could have. We aren’t hammering our support for women. Each man for himself. Don’t wait on the party to save you.”
Other Republicans, however, are brushing off Gonzales’s outlook.
“Well, if he’s right… I’m sure house leadership will hold a well publicized fundraiser for him next year to ‘take back the majority,’” another GOP lawmaker told The Hill.
