Vice President Harris and former President Trump are essentially tied in swing states, according to a new poll of battleground states released on Thursday.
The YouGov poll, conducted for the London-based The Times and SAY24, found that Harris led in four swing-states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania. On the other hand, Trump had the advantage in three, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina. All leads were within the poll's margin of error.
Harris's lead in Michigan was five points (48 percent to 43 percent). She led by three points in both Nevada (49 percent to 46 percent) and Wisconsin (47 percent to 44 percent). In Pennsylvania, the lead was one point (46 percent to 45 percent) among registered voters, the poll found.
Trump had a 2-point lead in Arizona, getting 47 percent to Harris’s 45 percent. The ex-president had the same gap in Georgia, garnering 47 percent while the vice president got 45 percent. In North Carolina, the state the former president won in 2020 by less than 2 percent, he received 47 percent support, being slightly ahead of Harris’s 46 percent, according to the survey.
“Even compared to March, a better time for the Biden campaign, Harris is running ahead or even in each state,” said Carl Bialik, the vice-president of data science and U.S. politics editor at YouGov, told The Times. “She is running ahead of, or even with, Biden’s 2020 performance in five of the seven states.”
“In 2020, Biden won six of them and the election,” Bialik added. “If the leads in these states hold up and the remaining states vote the same way they did in 2020, then Kamala Harris would win the electoral college vote by 276 to 262.”
Recent polling from CNN showed that in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, no candidate had a decisive lead. The vice president led 50 percent to 44 percent in Wisconsin. In Michigan, she was up 48 percent to Trump’s 43 percent. The former president had a 5-point lead in Arizona (49 percent to 44 percent).
In The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s aggregate of polls, Harris bests Trump by 4 percent, getting 49.7 percent to the ex-president’s 45.7 percent.
The polling was conducted Aug. 23-Sept. 3. The sample size in Arizona and Wisconsin was 900. It was 800 in Nevada, while in the remaining states, it was 1,000 each. The margin of error was between approximately 3 and 5 percent.
