In the marathon that is an election year, Democrats are winning the cash dash — a reality that is putting pressure on House Republicans as they look to expand their majority in the lower chamber come November.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raised $17.6 million in July — the month President Biden dropped out of the race and threw his support behind Vice President Harris — bringing the group’s total haul for the cycle to a record $228.4 million. The campaign arm has $92 million cash on hand.
The House GOP’s campaign arm, meanwhile, raked in $11.7 million in July, raising the total accumulated this cycle to $173.4 million. The group has $73.3 million cash on hand.
Republicans knew they were in a tough situation even before Tuesday’s filing deadline. On a House GOP conference call last week, National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) called on the conference to ramp up fundraising and transfer more money to the House GOP’s campaign arm.
“I need you to want it,” he told the group.
But the numbers from July — coupled with the exuberant enthusiasm among Democrats, which has been on full display during their convention in Chicago this week — is putting the financial squeeze on Republicans as the cycle heads into the final stretch, and control of the chamber remains up for grabs.
Some Republicans are expressing caution, but arguing the GOP still has options.
Former Rep. Thomas Reynolds (R-N.Y.) — who served as NRCC chair from 2003 to 2007 — said he is not too concerned about the NRCC’s trailing fundraising because of strong GOP coffers elsewhere. But he argued Hudson had the correct message so Republicans don’t get complacent in the final stretch.
“I think it was most appropriate, my personal opinion, that Chairman Hudson said let’s not think that we’re not in a dogfight here,” Reynolds told The Hill in an interview. “A lot has changed in 30 days. And if you watch the Democratic Convention this week, their message is that this is all turned around and everything’s moving to momentum.”
“I think there were certain assumptions that could be made by rank-and-file members that things are gonna be okay, I don’t have much of a race, and it just looks like everything is coming together for Trump,” Reynolds later added. “Well, Trump’s in a dogfight with Harris and the Senate’s fighting to make sure they have a Republican control. And I think the warnings are, do not think that we have a rosy outlook. We’re gonna have to fight for everything we get to hold the House and try to increase some of our numbers. And I think it’s a fair warning.”
Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas), another former NRCC chair who led the group during the 2010 red wave that flipped the House, said that the DCCC’s fundraising figures give Democrats more options, but argued that the current dynamics provide Republicans with opportunities as well.
“They do have more flexibility,” Sessions said of the Democrats. “But I think we've got a better opportunity to harden seats and make them spread [their money] out.”
The July numbers don’t necessarily mean Republicans’ chances of keeping the House have slipped away.
The NRCC trailed the DCCC in fundraising and cash-on-hand in July of 2022 before Republicans flipped the House that November.
Additionally, the GOP party committee is in a better financial position than it was in 2020, when Republicans surpassed expectations and picked up seats despite the party losing in the presidential election.
The picture also looks better for Republicans when considering the main super PACs aligned with the House Republican and Democratic leadership teams, the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) and House Majority PAC, respectively.
As of June 30, CLF had raised 130.8 million and had $110.8 million in cash on hand, compared to $110.8 million raised for House Majority PAC and $88.6 million in cash on hand.
The super PACs are not bound by individual contribution limits like the NRCC and DCCC, and are key to boosting candidates in tough districts with outside advertisements.
House Majority PAC, though, reported raising an eye-popping nearly $20 million during the month of July, according to a Tuesday filing — which includes a $10 million contribution from Michael Bloomberg on July 2, before Biden dropped out of the race. The July figures for CLF, which is on a quarterly reporting schedule, are unknown.
Reynolds — who is now a senior policy advisor at the law firm Holland & Knight — pointed to the dominating performance by CLF as reason why it is not time for Republicans to hit the panic button this cycle.
“The CLF has dwarfed the House Majority fund in a gap that makes up for where there’s any differential in DCCC and the NRCC,” Reynolds said.
Democrats, however, say their record numbers in July are just the beginning.
A source familiar with the DCCC’s fundraising told The Hill that the group is expecting larger numbers in August, when the full effect of the Harris bump will be apparent. Biden was at the top of the Democratic ticket for most of July, which was shaping up to be a strong month regardless, the source noted, arguing that August will be more reflective of the boost they say Harris is providing for down-ballot races.
“While we had an amazing bump on July 22, we were already coming in really strong and we expect August to be much, much bigger,” the source said, pointing to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. “August will be a good demonstration of the Harris ticket.”
Many of the Republican candidates in the most competitive races are also lagging behind their Democratic challengers in cash, adding to the urgency for members of the conference to support the party committees.
In the 22 districts rated as toss ups by the Cook Political Report, 17 Democratic candidates have more cash on hand than their Republican opponents, according to the most recent filings available.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) — who was installed as Speaker nearly 10 months ago — has contributed more than $20 million to the NRCC since winning the gavel, most recently announcing a $4 million transfer on a GOP conference call last week. House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), meanwhile, announced that she was sending $2 million between her New York battleground effort, the NRCC and candidates, bringing her total contributions to $11 million.
Reynolds — who oversaw a cycle when House Republicans expanded their majority, and then lost it — stressed the importance of individual candidate fundraising.
“I am not as concerned about those numbers, between the NRCC and DCCC, as I am looking at our incumbents and candidates as Republicans not keeping up the pace of fundraising with their opponents,” Reynolds said. “And so I think it all starts right at the candidate level and they’re gonna have to continue digging in.”
With all the focus on fundraising in the final weeks of the campaign, however, Sessions — who represents Texas’s 17th Congressional District — argued that fundraising is not the end-all-be-all, noting that other factors have an impact on election returns.
“Who else is on the ballot, what senators are in play, what else is happening, and it's just a metric,” Sessions said. “That's why I say, you know, money helps you, but it is not the intangible.”
Already-done work, he contended, will make a lot of the determinations about how the NRCC will be able to deploy its resources.
“That's where Richard [Hudson] will either win or not win,” Sessions said, “on his ability to comprehend and find the places where he is able to defend and then defeat.”
