A number of Democrats just two weeks ago, during the debate over whether President Biden should stay in the presidential race, were questioning whether Vice President Harris could beat former President Trump.
Those Democrats doubting Harris were largely focused on one thing: their nightmare election of 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in a race Democrats at the time were confident in winning.
“We went to a dark place and a lot of us thought: Hillary Clinton couldn't win. What makes us believe Kamala can?" one Democratic strategist said.
Those doubts are now mostly in the rearview mirror as Harris has taken the reins from Biden and become the near-certain party nominee.
But out of the gate, Harris is proving to be a different candidate than Clinton.
She’s drawn record-breaking fundraising, and in some ways has stolen the spotlight from Trump, a master of earned media. She’s energized her party and filled arenas.
It’s left many Democrats hopeful that this time, Trump will be defeated and the nation’s highest glass ceiling will be shattered.
“She’s not Hillary,” the strategist said. “That’s not to diminish Hillary in any way whatsoever. She certainly helped pave the way and helped create this moment in many ways. We owe Hillary a lot of gratitude for this.”
Harris relies on many former Clinton aides. Her chief of staff, Lorraine Voles, served as a communications aide to Clinton. The communications director on Harris's campaign, Brian Fallon, served as a chief spokesperson for Clinton's 2016 bid.
But the differences between the campaigns to date is stark, Democratic strategists say.
For starters, Clinton leaned into the historic nature of her campaign with slogans including “I’m with Her.” In autopsies of the 2016 campaign, Democrats concluded that was the wrong tack for an electorate in a populous moment who was looking for a candidate to speak for them.
Harris, who is not only the first woman vice president but the first Black and South Asian American who has had the title, hasn’t talked as much about how her campaign could make history. Instead, she talks about freedom — with Beyoncé’s track with the same name blaring at rallies — and the future.
“We’re NOT going back,” she has told crowds to cheers, echoing a mantra similar to Obama’s 2012 “Forward” theme.
It’s also a different time. And Harris has had the benefit of taking notes.
In 2016, Democrats had a different belief-system they say, pointing to the now famous line from former first lady Michelle Obama who said, “When they go low, we go high.” At the time, Democrats didn’t want to get in the mud with Trump; they believed in taking the moral high ground. While Clinton warned the electorate repeatedly making statements like, “When someone shows you who they are, believe them.”
Many people didn’t take Trump seriously at the time. Few believed he could win.
But he did. And that victory continues to haunt Democrats to this day. Now, Harris and her team have intentionally framed her candidacy as the prosecutor versus the convicted felon.
“In 2016, Democrats still believed the normal rules of politics applied when it came to fighting Donald Trump in an election,” said Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, who served as communications director to Harris until last year but also has close ties to the Clinton universe. “In 2024, we know those rules don’t apply anymore. This is a bare-knuckle street brawl.”
Democratic consultant Tracy Sefl, who served as an adviser to Clinton, agreed, pointing to the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade and other issues that galvanize the Democratic base.
“Voters have seen Trump in action — we’ve lived through him being in office,” Sefl said. “Voters are seeing the map of our country change at a distressingly fast pace — two years post Dobbs decision and 22 states now have abortion bans.
“And during all of this, we’ve weathered sexism and misogyny, and we know to no longer be surprised by the racism, untruths and hate,” she added. “Voters are sensing that as the presumptive nominee, Kamala Harris will take nothing and no one for granted. She seems fueled by a palpable fresh energy, emotion and urgency.”
The shorter time frame, with nearly 90 days to go, is also helping Harris, political observers say, pointing to the way Clinton emerged from the primary campaign in 2016, bruised from a grueling fight against Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
“The compressed timeline really works out well for her,” said Susan Del Percio, the longtime Republican strategist who does not support Trump. “You don’t have time to overthink this. You’ve got to just go out and do it. They’ll become much more nimbler as a result.”
Del Percio said the time frame is also working in the sense that not much is known about Harris, at least compared to Clinton.
Hillary Clinton was a former first lady, New York senator and secretary of State who had been in the spotlight for decades and was red meat for Republicans.
Like Clinton, Trump is a known commodity to voters. And polls reflect that many voters are tired of him, Del Percio said.
“Having an unknown candidate versus a candidate no one likes, I’ll take the unknown candidate any day of the week,” she said.
