Republican Kari Lake and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) are poised to become the official nominees in a blockbuster Senate race that will help determine control of the upper chamber as Arizonans conclude voting in their primaries Tuesday.
The Grand Canyon State is also hosting several contested primaries for two outgoing House incumbents: Gallego and Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.). The latter race features a match-up between two hard-line loyalists of former President Trump.
Arguably one of the more consequential races is the Republican primary in the Maricopa County recorder’s election between incumbent Stephen Richer and two Republican opponents — an election that could serve as a litmus test for the direction of the Republican Party in Arizona.
Here are five races to watch in Arizona’s primaries:
Lake and Gallego are all but in name the official GOP and Democratic nominees to face off for retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) seat in November.
The two have largely been in general election mode, taking swipes at each other even though Lake has a Republican primary challenger — Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
Lake is widely expected to beat Lamb on Tuesday, though the margin between the two could offer clues about how the GOP electorate feels about the former local news anchor ahead of November.
She has sought to court skeptics and the McCain-aligned faction of the GOP, though some have remained unmoved by her efforts. But some Republicans say Lake could benefit from Democrats’ recent shake-up at the top of the ticket with Vice President Harris as their likely nominee as she’s fielded attacks over immigration — a key issue in the Grand Canyon State.
Another variable that could throw a curveball in the race is whether Harris picks Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) as her running mate. Republicans and Democrats alike believe that could help Gallego to have the astronaut on the ticket.
Blake Masters, a venture capitalist and former Senate candidate, and Abe Hamadeh, who ran for attorney general last cycle, are duking it out in the House GOP primary to replace the retiring Lesko.
The two men are seen as the front-runners in the crowded Republican field for the GOP-friendly 8th Congressional District. Other candidates include Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma (R) and former Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.), who once held Lesko’s seat but left the House amid revelations that he had asked several aides about having his child as a paid surrogate.
Masters and Hamadeh have both strongly aligned themselves with Trump, and the primary at times has turned nasty. Masters criticized Hamadeh in May, saying “what we don’t need is someone with no wife and kids, no skin in the game.”
Hamadeh’s campaign hit back at Masters’s statement, saying, “This is the guy who says an Army Reserve Captain & Intelligence Officer doesn't have ‘skin in the game’ in the fight to save our country.” Hamadeh has also called the venture capitalist a “snake.”
While Trump initially only endorsed Hamadeh in the race, the former president offered an unexpected twist on Saturday when he said he was endorsing both Masters and Hamadeh, much to the chagrin of the latter.
Whoever wins Tuesday’s primary is the favorite to win in November.
Down-ballot races usually don’t generate a lot of attention given their local nature, but one race worth watching is the Maricopa County recorder GOP primary between current Recorder Stephen Richer and two hard-line conservatives: state Rep. Justin Heap — a member of the Arizona Freedom Caucus — and Donald Hiatt, who has experience in information management technology.
The Maricopa County recorder handles early voting and oversees voter rolls, among other responsibilities.
Richer, who officially became recorder in 2021, validated the 2020 and 2022 election results and has repeatedly defended Maricopa County’s election administration despite the prevalence of conspiracy theories inaccurately claiming there has been wrongdoing. He’s drawn the ire of conservatives like Lake, filing a defamation lawsuit against her.
Richer has been endorsed by several prominent Republicans, including former Govs. Doug Ducey and Jan Brewer.
The more serious competitor to Richer is Heap, given his previous political experience and his endorsements from Lake and Arizona GOP Reps. Paul Gosar, Eli Crane and Andy Biggs. The race could offer signs of the state Republican Party’s direction.
A bonus race to watch is the GOP primary between Maricopa County Supervisor Thomas Galvin, who’s running for reelection and has been endorsed by mainstream Republicans like Brewer and former Rep. John Shadegg. He’s vying for the seat against former state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita, who has the backing of hard-line conservatives like Hamadeh and Arizona Freedom Caucus chair and state Sen. Jake Hoffman.
Three Democrats are running for Gallego’s seat in the 3rd Congressional District, a blue stronghold, after Gallego announced he was running for Senate.
Raquel Terán, a former state senator who chaired the Arizona Democratic Party, former Phoenix Vice Mayor Yassamin Ansari and pediatrician Duane Wooten are all running for the seat. Terán and Ansari are considered the two top competitors in the race, and both women have attracted notable endorsements in the race.
Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), in addition to Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), have backed the former Arizona Democratic Party chair. Meanwhile, former Obama deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) have backed Ansari.
Whoever wins the Democratic primary Tuesday is the heavy favorite to win the seat in November.
A crowded field of six Democrats is running to take on Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) this fall.
Those candidates include Andrei Cherny, a former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party who’s also served as Arizona assistant attorney general; global financial services firm managing director Conor O'Callaghan; Kurt Kroemer, the CEO of the American Red Cross’s Arizona and New Mexico region; former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods; former state Rep. Amish Shah; and orthodontist Andrew Horne.
The primary has racked up some high-profile endorsements. Former President Clinton, former state Attorney General Terry Goddard and Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego have backed Cherny. Several House Democrats, including Rep. Dan Goldman (N.Y), and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), have backed O’Callaghan.
Galán-Woods has the backing of key members of the Arizona Democratic establishment, like former governor and former Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and state Attorney General Kris Mayes. Arizona state House Minority Leader Lupe Contreras has endorsed Shah.
Schweikert’s seat is considered a “toss up” by the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report.
