As President Joe Biden's reelection campaign ends and Vice President Kamala Harris takes over, the Middle East is on a dangerous trajectory and Israel is prepared to go it alone, with Netanyahu telling Congress 'the hands of the Jewish state will never be shackled'.
As Washington and the White House struggle to make sense of last Sunday’s not so unexpected bombshell that President Joe Biden was ending his reelection campaign and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the potential Democratic nominee – turmoil beyond the borders of the United States continues.
By passing the torch on Sunday and addressing the American people Wednesday evening, Biden officially assumed the title of “lame duck.” The remainder of his presidency could jeopardize the progress the Israelis are making against Hamas and their Iranian proxies.
Meanwhile, Harris seems to have little interest in an Israeli victory.
The media, and by default, the American public, is now laser focused on the presidential candidates and their platforms. Like King Charles III, Biden’s role has now become mostly ceremonial as the kingmakers establish new policies.
The question many Americans are asking now is: Who is running the country? As well as our allies in Tel Aviv, Kyiv and Taipei.
Wednesday’s scheduled meeting between the president and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was pushed to Thursday – after Netanyahu’s joint address to Congress. Harris did not attend, choosing instead to give the keynote speech in Indianapolis for the Zeta Phi Beta Sorority, Inc.’s Grand Boulé instead.
Senate President Pro Tempore Patty Murray (D-Wash.) boycotted Netanyahu’s address as well, along with dozens of other Democrats and Republican vice president nominee Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio).
This is not a good look for Washington. The Middle East is on a dangerous trajectory and Israel’s No. 1 ally is “clocking out” for the election. That said, Israel is prepared to go at it alone, with Netanyahu telling Congress “Let me assure you, the hands of the Jewish state will never be shackled. Israel will always defend itself.”
Whoever inherits the White House will likely have a mess on “aisle nine” in the Mideast to clean-up.
Now more than ever, Washington and the Biden administration must be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. U.S. support for Israel cannot take a back seat to the Democratic National Convention in August nor the presidential election in November.
Iran – via their Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and proxies – is not likely to pause their operations while Washington sorts this all out. As the Whispers sang in 1979, “And the beat goes on.”
American politics and the pursuit of voting blocs will likely delay much needed decisions and support now – putting Israel and the Middle East one step closer to nuclear Armageddon.
Iran is positioning the IRGC and their proxies to take advantage of this distracted White House and divided government. Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon and Shia militants in Iraq have renewed their attacks on Israel, U.S. bases in Iraq and commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in what is now a mutually supporting effort – a regional conflict the White House sought to avoid.
Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported that Iranian-backed Shia militants in Iraq have resumed attacks on U.S. bases following months of relative calm. On July 16, they fired two drones at the Ain al-Asad Airbase in Iraq.
No casualties were reported, but the message was sent. Continued U.S. support to Israel will result in attacks against U.S. interests by Iranian proxies. This cannot stand.
Does anyone believe a lame duck presidency that was already adrift in the Mideast is going to adequately address this issue?
Defense and deterrence are not working. CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Kurilla recently warned that the U.S. strategy to degrade Houthi rebels in Yemen is failing, and that more robust action is required. A similar message was delivered by former NATO commander, retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis just a few weeks ago.
From July 18 to 21, U.S. Central Command destroyed two surface-to-air missiles and four uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) on the ground in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, four Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed surface vessel (USV) in the Red Sea, and one Iranian-backed Houthi UAV over the Red Sea.
CENTCOM determined they “presented an imminent threat to U.S., coalition forces, and merchant vessels in the region … to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure.”
On July 19, Houthi rebels fired an upgraded long-range Iranian-made Samad-3 drone that struck Tel Aviv near the U.S. Embassy. It was launched shortly after the Israel Defense Forces confirmed they had killed Habib Maatouk, a senior field commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan forces, in an air strike in south Lebanon. A Houthi spokesman said they struck Tel Aviv to “target Israel in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza war.”
Israel responded immediately with airstrikes by U.S.-made F-15 and F-35 warplanes in the western Yemeni port city of Hodeidah, a Houthi stronghold and crucial port used to deliver Iranian arms to Yemen. The next day the U.S. and United Kingdom launched a joint airstrike in the Hajjah and Al Hudaydah provinces in Yemen.
Iran and Hezbollah fully realize when Hamas is defeated, they are next. Their demise is sequential. Israel’s top-down approach – removing leadership from the battlefield – is having an effect by disrupting their centralized command and control architecture. Houthi rebels and Hezbollah militants are merely a speed bump though. Iran needs a nuclear weapon to deter an Israeli attack. Netanyahu will not let that happen.
While Israel closes out the remaining Hamas threat in Gaza, Jerusalem is now forced to address a resilient Houthi threat as it repositions its forces to confront Hezbollah from southern Lebanon. Their strategy to defeat, deter and dissuade is being usurped by the failing Biden and Harris strategy of defend and deter.
Now, more than ever, is the time for Washington and the Biden administration to coalesce behind Israel. Harris’s support for a cease-fire in Gaza provides Hamas hope – and provided Beijing an opening to broker a treaty between Fatah and Hamas to strengthen the terrorist organization.
Cease fires and peace agreements do not win wars – they simply buy time for the enemy to reconstitute its forces and try again. The White House needs to meet uncertainty with certainty – send a message to our allies and adversaries.
Sitting out Netanyahu’s joint address to Congress accomplished nothing. They missed a stirring speech by an appreciative prime minister and strong American ally.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
