Democrats are in a stalemate.
On one side, there's President Biden, a beloved patriarch of the party whom Democrats have for years called "Uncle Joe." He has built a coalition of progressive, Black and Hispanic voters and lawmakers. He is quick to point out that he defeated former President Donald Trump once, and he can do it again.
He is dug in.
On the other side, there's a growing chorus of Democrats — key lawmakers (including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former President Barack Obama) donors, operatives, pundits — who believe he's too old for another term. But it's not just them. In the three weeks since Biden's disastrous debate performance, poll after poll has revealed that a majority of Democrats think the same.
Both sides are eager to win. And this week has been proof of that.
Take Friday’s tug of war, for example: Within a matter of hours, Biden got a key endorsement from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus PAC, contrasting against a group of Democratic lawmakers coming out against him. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies came out in support of the president. But key Democratic donors threatened to cut off money to the campaign, adding to a situation where the money coming in is already “godawful,” as one donor put it.
"This won't end well unless it ends soon," one Democratic strategist surmised, when asked about the teetering state of play. “We’re a divided nation, but even worse, we’re a divided party.”
Since Biden’s debate performance on June 27, the story has rocked back and forth, from stubborn stances — “I am not going anywhere,” as Biden has said — to bold declarations — “I believe President Biden should not seek re-election to another term,” as Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said Thursday, shortly before Trump took the stage at the Republican National Committee.
Amid backroom meetings where lawmakers worried about their chances of winning in November — not only the White House but both chambers of Congress — Biden has encountered friendly crowds. “Don’t you quit!” a crowd at Biden’s Detroit rally chanted last week.
The fracture in the Democratic Party was only underscored as Republicans rallied behind Trump at the RNC, days after an attempted assassination attempt that prolonged a conclusion to the intraparty food fight.
“It’s a worst case scenario for Democrats as Republicans unify, energize and mobilize,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. “The polls don’t get better as more Democrats publicly articulate the problems with Biden. Meanwhile, Biden doubles down.”
“Instead of a party fighting the GOP, they are fighting amongst themselves,” Zelizer said.
Further complicating the issue is what to do if Biden does step aside. There are various camps, if that happens too.
There are some Democrats who say it would be a more seamless process if Vice President Harris becomes the nominee because she’s already been tested, can easily acquire the $91 million campaign war chest and because she will help galvanize the base of the party that is anxious to win back support from Black and Hispanic voters.
But there are others who don’t think she can win — particularly in Blue Wall states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
Some donors, in particular, would like to see an open convention next month in Chicago. But that would cause more chaos, strategists say, especially if some Democrats feel Harris has been leapfrogged.
“Therein lies the problem,” said one major Democratic donor. “There’s no easy way to get from A to B, and I think that’s the main reason why Biden doesn’t want to go anywhere.”
Those in Biden World say the president is surely thinking about the 2016 race, when he attempted to run in the Democratic primary against Hillary Clinton. Biden thought he was a better candidate than Clinton but was kept out of the race by former President Obama, donors, and other members of the party establishment.
In his 2018 book "Promise Me Dad," Biden wrote that his senior adviser Mike Donilon made the case for his prospective candidacy.
“My favorable ratings were higher than those of any candidate in the race — in either party. My numbers on trustworthiness, honesty, and empathy were as high as they had ever been,” he wrote. “And I was strongest, where the most formidable candidate Hillary Clinton was weakest: the key swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.”
When Clinton lost in 2016, Biden told supporters, journalists — and anyone who would listen — that he could have won, if he had only run.
“I am sure all of this is playing into his calculus,” said a longtime Biden ally.
On Friday, as the chorus of Democrats once again grew louder, the president appeared to be not moving. And while he remained at home with a bout of COVID, his advisers were still making the argument.
“When you give me polls, I’m going to give you direct voter contact,” Jen O’Malley Dillon, the Biden campaign co-chair, told an all staff meeting on Friday. “The people that the President is hearing from are saying, ‘Stay in this race and keep going and keep fighting, and we need you.’ Those voices will never be as loud as the people on TV, but remember that the people in our country are not watching cable news.”
If anything served as a unifying factor on Friday, it was Trump’s speech at the Republican National Convention.
“We just have to get our s--- together because damn it, we can beat this guy,” the strategist said.
