Former President Trump’s lead over President Biden in national polling is unchanged following the debate between the candidates last week, according to a new survey.
The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released Monday, which was conducted after the debate, showed Trump leading Biden by 6 percentage points in a head-to-head match-up, 47 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided. That’s the same margin as the pollster’s last survey from May, when Trump led 49 percent to 43 percent.
When the undecided voters were required to choose, Trump’s lead narrowed to 52 percent to 48 percent, slightly closer than the May result, where he led 53 percent to 47 percent.
But Trump’s lead expanded in a three-way race with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The former president led by about 6 points, with Kennedy at 12 percent, up from a 4-point lead in May.
When the 8 percent who were undecided were required to choose, Trump led Biden 46 percent to 39 percent, with Kennedy at 15 percent. That’s up from the 5-point lead Trump had in May.
Pollsters additionally found that evaluations of a five-way race including Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West showed the margins stayed roughly the same, with Trump having a 7- or 8-point lead before and after the debate.
Trump and Biden appeared on stage together for the first time since 2020 last week in a much-anticipated faceoff. Biden’s poor performance, in which he often stumbled over his words and at times struggled to clearly state his positions on issues in response to moderators’ questions, has triggered alarm bells among some in the Democratic Party about whether Biden should be replaced as the nominee.
Mark Penn, the co-director of the poll, said a lot of internal numbers have moved in favor of Trump, like Biden’s approval rating dropping and economic anxiety rising, but the race overall appears stable in Trump’s favor. He added that Biden is holding on to his support.
The Biden campaign and key surrogates have been adamant that Biden will continue and is capable of running for president successfully and serving four more years in office.
The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey was conducted June 28-30 and surveyed 2,090 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.
The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.
