If one were to look at Luis Robert Jr.’s surface-level stats this season, they might be concerned. After all, a .198 batting average and a 36.7 K% are not the types of numbers we are used to seeing from him, especially given the career year he had in 2023. Injuries have derailed his season and he is still trying to find his footing. However, a deeper dive into Robert Jr.’s 2024 numbers paints a much more positive picture. The numbers are so positive that not only is it a matter of time before his numbers return to where they usually are, but Robert Jr. could be on the verge of being better than he ever has.
The truth is that Robert Jr. is not even having a bad season. While his batting average is lower than usual, he has 12 extra-base hits in just 25 games. He already has seven home runs, and his .768 OPS makes him 14% better than the league average offensively, all while drawing walks at a higher rate than ever before. His 86th percentile sprint speed is also the best Robert Jr. has been in that category since his rookie season and is a promising development considering all of his past lower body issues.
It is worth noting that Robert Jr. has only played in 25 games this season, a relatively small sample size. However, positive trends are starting to emerge. For one, his 20.8 barrel%, 47.2 hardhit%, 90.7 average exit velocity, and 34.0 flyball% all represent the highest marks of his MLB career so far, while his 33.0 chase% is a career low. Robert Jr. is mashing baseballs in the air more consistently than ever while swinging at fewer pitches out of the strike zone. All these factors combined point to Robert Jr. putting up massive numbers shortly.
Another aspect that paints a positive picture for Robert Jr. moving forward is his BABIP. His BABIP entering the day is a minuscule .229. For reference, his lowest BABIP in a season before 2024 was .300 in his 2020 rookie year. Robert Jr. does not officially qualify on MLB leaderboards because he does not have enough at-bats, but his .229 BABIP would rank as the fifth lowest in all of MLB this season. In other words, Robert Jr. has been one of the most unlucky players in the sport this season. He is crushing the ball with very little to show for it. His BABIP will not remain that low forever. Eventually, his batted balls will start to find holes, and his stats will naturally improve.
Robert Jr. might not be with the White Sox for much longer, as his name is a hot topic in trade rumors. He is a great player when healthy, and his contract is a bargain when he is putting up his typical numbers. Some worry that the White Sox might be “selling low” on Robert Jr. if they were to trade him now, given his injury-plagued season and inconsistent performance since returning. But Robert Jr. is on the verge of returning to the type of player we all know and love. It is only a matter of time. The numbers prove it.
