This shows the Predictit price for Biden being the Democrat nominee. It is now down to 24c which means a 24% probability only.
Just a month ago he was at almost 90%. Then the debate on 27 June saw him drop to 61%. Speculation he may withdraw saw him drop top around 40%
His 11 July press conference and the assassination attempt on Trump saw his chances rise to 70%. But then a combination of senior Democrats urging him out and Biden getting Covid has seen it drop to 24%.
This one shows the odds of him being re-elected President in red. He was just behind Trump at 45%, declined to 30% and today is at just 12%. So the betting markets give him not even a 1 in 8 chance of winning.
I will be amazed if Biden doesn’t withdraw as the candidate in the next few days. What I think is up in the air is three things.
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