A guest post by John Stringer:
The US presidential election is on Nov 5 (6th NZ time) 2024. In a few recent posts, for people not that familiar with how the US election works, it was explained that candidates (Biden and Trump) compete for each State. People vote by State. If a candidate wins a State, they get that ‘grab bag’ of State votes, called Electoral College Votes. The number of State College votes is determined by population. CA has 54, Texas has 40, Delaware has 3, and so on. This is done for a particular reason, to give States parity in deciding their president. If you get 270 Electoral College Votes you become the US president.
I’ve been tracking the averages of all polls in each State, for a while. We have a number in every State that a candidate leads by now. There are other factors too, like mid-term elections (how well Republicans or Democrats did in any particular State) and previous election result winning margins (2016, 2020 and trends in earlier elections). States are Republican or Democrat and we can follow changes in demographics and trends). All these factored in, gives us a good steer.
In a recent post I explained there were SOLID States (a State in which Biden or Trump leads now by 12%+ points over their rival) and LEANING States (they lead by 6%+ points). This coloured the State map of America, Republican (Red) or Democrat (Blue) the reverse of how it is in NZ (Labour v National). This left ten blanks States, which I said would decide the presidential election. These ten States have 180 College votes up for grabs.
1.TEXAS (40)
2. FLORIDA (30)
3.OHIO (17)
4. Pennsylv (19)
5.GEORGIA (16)
6.N. CAROL (16)
7.MICHIGAN (15)
8.ARIZONA (11)
9.WISCON. (10)
10.NEVADA (06)
Elect. Votes (180)
But already by late-May 2024 three of these 10 States were already very solid for one candidate over another (more like a SOLID State).
In Texas Trump leads by 12% points up from 8% on 1 May.
In Florida Trump leads by 9% points.
In Ohio Trump leads by 10% points. That’s 87 College votes to Trump.
Even if polls fluctuated a bit, these leads are expected to remain leads, and Trump will win these States on the numbers. Polls track trends and that has been the trend for some time.
7 Battleground States
That leaves perhaps seven States we might call the Battleground States, the results of which will likely determine the presidential race. All these seven States were decided in 2020 by less than 3% points. Some of them went to Trump in 2016 and some went to Biden in 2020. Some flipped, so they are true Decider States.
Hispanic and Black Voters.
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In 2024 Trump is gaining big support amongst Hispanic voters (who have moved significantly right since 2020) and even amongst Black voters, which is bleeding across from Biden (on the economy and inflation). This is turning several Battleground States in Trump’s favour. The swing in Black votes is especially pronounced in Georgia one of the key seven. For example, a 5% shift in Georgia amongst Black voters would deliver a -1% loss to Biden in that State. In several cases, Biden’s support is down across States by double digit % points. He’s bleeding a lot in other words. And Trump is hoovering.
1/7 Georgia. Current polling shows Georgia is now Republican LEANING (Trump leads by 5.5%). 19 College votes.
2/7 North Carolina is also LEANING Republican. (Trump leads by 6.4%). 16 College votes.
3/7 Arizona is LEANING Republican (Trump is ahead by 4.3%). 11 College votes.
4/7 Michigan is LEANING Republican (Trump is ahead by 8% points). 15 College votes.
5/7 Wisconsin has Trump ahead by 1.6% in a poll 27 May. 10 College votes. Definitely a State to watch.
6/7 Pennsylvannia Trump leads by 1.6% points. 19 College votes.
7/7 Nevada is very interesting. Based on 32 polls, averaged, Trump leads in NV by 5.4%. 6 College Votes. I think this is the State to watch.
The two debates, Trump’s trial verdict last week, Hunter Biden’s verdict this week, and Biden’s mental health will be big poll shifters, so anything could happen. But if the average of all polls, across all States, over the last several months holds true, then Trump wins by a big margin. Over 300 College votes. Some pollsters even have him over 400 which would be a rout.
The post Guest Post: 7 True Battleground States for US President 2024 first appeared on Kiwiblog.
